You have to give Lichtman credit: he's all over the place, him and his little keys. Useful as a tool to focus attention on the inconspicuous contexts of a presidential election perhaps, but as some stroke of genius which Reveals The Future to The Seekers of Truth?
No.
No primary contest: technically true, but I seem to recall a tense struggle between incumbent not-going-anywhere Biden, and the He's-gotta-go camp. So we're supposed to not consider that as a contest?
Short term and long term economy: you can call either or both of those a plus or a minus, arbitrarily.
Major policy change? "True", apparently. And which major policy change would that be?
Uncharismatic Challenger: anyone not American would find the notion of Trump being charismatic laughable, but fact is a lot of Americans find him so.
I could just as easily call 8 or 9 of those 'flags' red.
For the record, Harris looks like winning, and could be a blowout. Harris around 340 or so, Trump maybe 200.
