There’s definitely a time and financial cost consideration involved in the decisions of companies that have thrown the towel in.
Given the numbers we are talking about, in how Ryoncil may become a first in class product, the cost/benefit analysis of not giving up would have been skewed heavily towards the foregone benefit of giving up. No doubt there have been miscalculations (such as not persisting with and making available data on the potency assay which was used in the trial part of the resubmission last year - from memory the cause of the issue with the reagent was not tracked down until after the resubmission) which made the company look quite foolish on the surface as a result of the delay in the last couple of years and led some to conclude that it was dawdling because it feared another trial would fail. However, once the Covid related chaos was over and the company managed as it did to convince the extremely well regarded BMT-CTN to come on board, and to largely fund the adult trial that was discussed with the agency, it showed no reluctance to conduct such an adult trial. Given the speed with which they pushed ahead with this, I would say the cost of doing another trial was likely more important a consideration than worry that it might fail. People, especially non-holders, who insist on emphasising the latter are probably, once again, suffering from a case of deliberate selection bias.
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