With today's further share price dive, we've touched a 2b AUD market-cap. Even with the Q2 sales update I am struggling to make sense of this from a figure's perspective.
We have
200m~ cash
50m to be paid on sale or use of PRV
That means our EV is approx 1.75B AUD (Or 1.15B USD) less cash and expected cash. I suppose you could remove the PRV, but it doesn't make that big of a difference.
Daybue guidance is between 132-138m including sales milestones. If we remove the sales milestone as a one off, we're then working with 1.67b.
55-61m AUD sales royalties on Daybue we can assume a 5% quarterly growth. This is conservative because of our market penetrate in the US is still low, and we should get a lot of new patients when Japan and EU markets are open. Applying a 35 forward PE on earnings like this isn't a stretch because 5% quarterly growth equates to 20% annual growth, much of which will go to our bottom line given we don't have any costs to produce this income.
This equals 1,925m or 15% higher than our current market cap and excludes everything below.
Our share in Acadia NNZ-2591 for FxS (200m?)
Our share in Acadia NNZ-2591 RTT (?)
NNZ-2591 for PMS, PH, Angelman (500m-2b?) 2-5b after phase 3 success
Undisclosed indications (?)
Potential PRV if we get approval for PMS
NEU Price at posting:
$16.24 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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