The article below outlines the underlying fundamentals which are more import to GLE (and hence SLX) than the U₃O₈ price (particularly the "spot" price). The fact is that the market for conversion and enrichment are buoyant and largely underpin the financial case for the PLEF (i.e "opportunities" 1 and 2 but also 3). I Ted O'Brien is to be believed we may also (eventually) get an enrichment plant here in Australia - that would make a lot of sense.

https://news.az/news/uranium-prices-rise-amid-russian-ban-on-us-supplies

Uranium prices rise amid Russian ban on US supplies

• 09 Aug 2024 09:19
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The US government's ban on the supply of enriched uranium from Russia to the US is supporting the growth of prices for raw materials for nuclear fuel (NF), News.az reports citing the Kommersant newspaper .

The cost of uranium conversion and enrichment services has again reached record levels.

American Centrus Energy, which does not have its own centrifuges, received permission from the US Department of Energy to purchase uranium from Rosatom only for 2024-2025 for American nuclear power plants ( NPPs ).

However, Centrus Energy notes that they will not be able to do without supplies from Russia until at least the end of 2027.

According to reports from the French company Orano, which produces nuclear fuel, the growth in prices for raw materials for the production of nuclear fuel has accelerated after the adoption of the law banning the supply of Russian enriched uranium to the United States.

According to Orano:

-as of the end of June 2024, the spot price for uranium conversion (conversion of uranium to UF6; CV EU Spot) increased by 46% year-on-year to US$60/kg,
-price in long-term contracts (CV EU Term) - by 31%, to USD 38/kg;
-The spot price for enriched uranium (SWU Spot) rose by 19% to $174/SWU (separative work units),
cost in long-term contracts (SWU Term) - by 17%, up to USD 159/SWU;
-The indicators are at record levels.

Let us recall that on May 14, 2024, it became known that US President D. Biden signed a law prohibiting the import of low-enriched uranium from Russia (HR 1042 Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act).

The document comes into force on August 11, 2024 and will be valid until December 31, 2040.

At the same time, until January 2028, the US Department of Energy, in agreement with the State Department and the US Department of Commerce, will be able to issue permits for imports from Russia if there are no other sources of supply or the import of Russian fuel meets the national interests of the United States.

Earlier, the US Department of Commerce reported that the cost of enriched uranium supplies from Russia to the United States in 2023 exceeded $ 1.2 billion.

American Centrus Energy (former USEC), a partner of TENEX (Techsnabexport, a subsidiary of Rosatom), announced that it had received permission from the US Department of Energy to import enriched uranium from Russia under contracts with American nuclear power plants for 2024-2025.

Theses from the press service of Centrus Energy:

-The US Department of Energy postponed decisions on deliveries for 2026–2027 to an indefinite date closer to the delivery date;
-In addition, Centrus requested permission to import Russian products for processing and re-export to other countries;
-The company does not know whether it will receive these permits and in what volume.

Centrus has not had its own centrifuges for a long time, which is why the company has a long-term contract with TENEX for the supply of low-enriched uranium.

In the United States, there is only one plant for enriching uranium to the level required for operating nuclear power plant units.
This is the plant of the European company URENCO in Eunice, New Mexico, with a capacity of 4.7 million SWU/year, while the US need is estimated at 12 million EPP/year.

The plant has launched an expansion program that will increase production by 15% by 2027, which, given the increase in capacity of the URENCO plant in Europe, should allow the US to break its dependence on Rosatom.

According to the Centrus report:

- In 2023, American NPP operators purchased about 3.9 million SWU from Russia, which is about 24% of demand;
- Currently, there are 94 nuclear power units operating in the United States with a capacity of 97 GW, which generate up to 20% of the country's electricity.

The American nuclear fuel industry has been in decline since the late 2000s due to falling raw material prices following the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan.

Uranium mines in the United States were closed, centrifuge development programs were halted, and a conversion plant was mothballed.