Time for some reassessment and thinking of potential outcomes ahead of the news. Obviously a lower sp on bad news and it would be difficult to predict how much lower from current low levels with so much negativity priced in since the delay last year. Upside on good news should be easier to predict based on DFS numbers and the chart patterns.
On the technical side, the weekly chart is starting to reflect the upside potential.
The gradually rising brown line is the 200DMA. The sp has spent most of the last 4 years well above that moving average. That changed late last year with the delay to production and then the cr earlier this year which wasn't well received. However, the sp has turned back up I think that getting back on track to production should see the sp comfortably back above that 200DMA, with the potential to go well above it.
The other three lines are the MA Envelopes. I don't use them often but they look like a good indicator for Minbos. Once the sp moves above the bands AND the bands turn up, the price almost always trends strongly higher. Once it gets below and the bands turn down, it more often than not trends lower. The sp has spent the last three weeks above the bands AND the bands have turned up.
While the sp has rebounded, it is in the very early stages of a recovery with plenty of room for upside from here. This uptrend looks like it has only just begun. How much upside potential can be seen by looking at the past chart patterns. This is a volatile stock with big moves either way. On all past occasions over the last 4 years, when the sp trends up, the minimum move has been a two fold increase and the average gain has been a 2.9 fold increase in sp. Even the rally last year - in the middle of the small cap resource bear market - it managed a 2.5 fold sp increase.
News will be critical but if it's positive and construction begins, the chart shows the price is more than capable of a 2-4 fold increase. The fundamentals support that. News on funding and construction will be the company's most important news of the last 4 years. If news is good, I think that we should see a new high above the 2021, 21c peak. That will take a 4 fold increase but if funding news over coming weeks is positive (including offtake), it will be company making news and it will take Minbos from spec developer to producer in under a year.
