Running discussion on SP, page-83018

I assume that both letters from the Ministère des Mines are genuine. In the letter dated July 18, 2024, the Prime Minister is informed about the status of the negotiations with AVZ, while in the letter dated August 9, 2024, those very negotiations, which the Prime Minister was previously informed about, are denied. To me, this clearly shows how deeply the political leadership of the DRC is entrenched in corruption. Ultimately, what matters most is which pressure will weigh more heavily on Felix and his elites: the pressure from the courts and the World Bank, potentially leading to exposure and unrest among the betrayed populace, or the pressure from the Chinese, who likely also threaten exposure and the end of their discreet delivery of bribes.

At the moment, it seems the strategy is to corner AVZ and then propose a low takeover (TO) offer for the Chinese as a compromise. Part of the deal will likely involve ensuring that the bribes and corruption uncovered in the legal proceedings are not made public. This way, the Chinese secure the world's largest lithium deposit for far below its value, and the DRC's political leadership can save face and keep their bribes.

AVZ shareholders will be relieved if they can get out of this situation with a TO offer between 1-3 AUD. It's unfortunate for the people of the DRC and also for the AVZ shareholders. I believe most shareholders will accept any offer above 1 AUD and turn their backs on the DRC for good.