ORA 1.23% $2.41 orora limited

Ann: ORA - Receipt and Rejection of NBIO from Lone Star, page-25

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  1. 17,017 Posts.
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    That the stock is trading at a level so below this approach, irrespective of how indicative, conditional or otherwise qualified the approach is, surprises me.

    This company is now clearly in play, with a lame-duck board having insufficient credibility to defend against takeover bids.

    So I put the odds of there being no further bidding (from either Lone Star or another interloper) as low, say <15%.  In which case the share price would ease back to $2.00 (it wouldn't fall to previous lows purely because of today's announcement)

    And then I think there's a 50% chance a 10% higher bid, so $2.80, emerges.
    Also a 30% chance that a bid of $3.00 materialises, especially if an additional acquirer emerges.
    Of course, there is an outside chance (5% odds) that a bidding war erupts which could see a $3.20 or higher share price.

    Throw all that into a weighted average algorithm and you get a probability-weighted return in excess of 20%:

    Screenshot 2024-08-13 162048.png

    Asymmetric investment return opportunity.
    The merger-arb boys will be all over it.

    .
 
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Last
$2.41
Change
-0.030(1.23%)
Mkt cap ! $3.237B
Open High Low Value Volume
$2.46 $2.47 $2.41 $11.64M 4.800M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 12298 $2.41
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$2.42 9404 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 31/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
ORA (ASX) Chart
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