Phase II Begins, Cashed Up with Healey In the Sights of Big Pharma $$$, page-104

Hi All,
Just a few comments on the Morgans paper.

1. The 14% chance of Phase 2/3 being successful appears to be based on the average amount of P1 trials that go on to be approved. In the case of MPL, the P1 also measured efficacy and not just safety as is normally the case. Additionally the OLE program appears to be supporting [Yet to be proven beyond doubt] the impressive efficacy shown in the P1 MEND trial. I think we can raise that to somewhere above 50%, don't forget Efficacy could drop and still result in FDA approval.
2. The projected share price of $3.21 following a successful P2/3 is only based on ALS/MND, which is one of the less common conditions where MPL may be of use. E.g Alzheimer, Parkinsons and Huntington's.

Exciting times


Cheers