Lithium Related Media Articles, page-23907

Extracted from a long article on everything metal..

Exclusive: SMM China July Metals Production and August Forecast

Lithium Carbonate

According to SMM statistics, the total domestic production of lithium carbonate in July (including recycling) was 64,960 mt, down 1.94% MoM, up 43.36% YoY. From January to July, the cumulative domestic production of lithium carbonate was 363,424 mt, up 46.10% YoY. By raw material, the total production of lithium carbonate from spodumene in July was 30,300 mt, up 1.7% MoM. Most spodumene-based lithium salt plants maintained a high and stable operating rate in July. However, some non-integrated spodumene-based lithium salt plants saw a decline in production due to weak downstream demand and the risk of losses. Meanwhile, some leading lithium salt plants completed maintenance and technical upgrades in July, resulting in increased production. Overall, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increased by 1.7% MoM in July. The total production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite in July was 15,600 mt, down 12.3% MoM. Although some non-integrated lepidolite-based lithium salt plants experienced losses earlier, they did not significantly reduce production in June due to cash flow considerations. However, continued price declines made it difficult for these plants to sell their products, leading to production cuts. As a result, the production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite decreased by 12.3% MoM in July. The total production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes in July was 13,300 mt, up 2.5% MoM. July remained a peak production period for salt lake-based lithium salt plants, with a high operating rate. Additionally, new lithium salt plants started production in early July, contributing to the total production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes. The total production of recycled lithium carbonate in July was 5,760 mt, up 1.1% MoM. The high price of recycled scrap led many recycling plants to reduce or halt production. However, some recycling plants saw an increase in production due to stable outsourcing orders and the need to deliver futures contract in July. Overall, the total production of recycled lithium carbonate increased slightly.

In August, the risk of losses is expected to continue affecting some lithium salt plants, leading to anticipated production cuts. Except for salt lake-based lithium salt plants, which are expected to maintain a stable operating rate, production from other raw material sources is likely to be impacted. The total domestic production of lithium carbonate in August is expected to be 63,110 mt, down 2.8% MoM.

Currently, downstream material plants have increased their inquiries, but the expected transaction prices are close to market prices, which still differ from the psychological expectations of most lithium salt plants. Additionally, material plants' long-term contracts and customer supplies are sufficient for daily production, so there is no urgent need for restocking, and transaction activities have not significantly increased. On the supply side, lithium salt plants continue to have a firm stance on pricing, but generally hold a bearish outlook for the future, leading to slight price reductions. Some lithium salt plants face the risk of losses and have plans to reduce production. In contrast, material plants' production schedules for August have slightly increased. It is expected that the domestic supply surplus of lithium carbonate may slightly ease, but prices are likely to remain weak.

Lithium Hydroxide

In July 2024, China's lithium hydroxide production reached 32,300 mt, down 8.3% MoM, up 21% YoY. By raw material type, the production of lithium hydroxide using smelting method in July reached 29,000 mt, down 9.5% MoM, up 31.6% YoY. The production of lithium hydroxide using causticisation method reached 3,300 mt, up 3% MoM, down 28% YoY.

Supply side, in July, China's production of lithium hydroxide using smelting method showed a downward trend, while that using causticisation method slightly increased. The overall scheduled production of lithium hydroxide using causticisation method remained stable with slight growth, mainly due to the ramp-up of production after the completion of a major producer's production line adjustment, but the operating rate of most lithium hydroxide producers using causticisation method remained low. Additionally, lithium hydroxide producers using smelting method saw a significant reduction in July due to decreased demand and maintenance.

Demand side, in July, orders from major ternary cathode material producers increased significantly, leading to a substantial increase in overall scheduled production and a rebound in demand for lithium hydroxide. Major producers saw a notable increase in July. The production of ternary cathode materials in July was 59,000 mt, up 20% MoM from June's 49,000 mt; the increases for the 6-series and 8-series were 5% and 40%, respectively, with high-nickel showing the highest increase. Most cathode material producers maintained a high proportion of over 50% of lithium hydroxide supplied by customers, and long-term contracts were generally enough to sustain production, resulting in low sentiment for spot orders. SMM expects that lithium hydroxide production in August will reach 33,600 mt, up 4% MoM, up 32% YoY, mainly due to the completion of maintenance and production ramp-up at a major producer in Jiangxi, leading to a slight increase in August's lithium hydroxide production.