UBS Global Research and Evidence Lab
8 August 2024
SSR Mining
Çöpler remediation and 2H production skew
Focus remains Turkey and Copler
SSR reported Q2 gold equivalent (AuEq) sales of 71koz at US$2,116/oz AISC, slightly
softer than expected, with adjusted attributable NPAT US$7.5m. Cash declined q/q US
$109m to US$358m (US$128m net cash with a US$500m undrawn revolver). The
dividend has been removed following the Çöpler incident with no indication currently
when they may resume. CY24 guidance was maintained with a 2H skew. The focus
remains on Çöpler remediation and its future. We remain Buy rated at a slightly lower A
$9.40/sh Price Target (reflecting minor model revisions).
Çöpler remediation US$250-300m
As of July 31st ~70% of the displaced heap leach material has been moved into
temporary storage. SSR continues to work closely with relevant authorities with Turkish
government statements indicating no recordable contamination to local soil/water/air in
sampling. Once all approvals are reinstated (EIA and operating permits), Çöpler aims to
process the +700koz of surface stockpiles through the sulfide plant. Total site
remediation is forecast at US$250-300m. We continue to exclude Turkey (Çöpler and
Hod Maden) for our sum of the parts valuation given uncertainty around the path
forward.
Guidance on track and 2H weighted
Marigold volumes will lift in Q4 as Red Dot waste stripping eases, while Seabee grade
lifts into H2. Puna was the stand-out performer in the Q2, delivering 2.73Moz after a
record plant throughout. CY24 guidance of 340 - 380koz AuEq remains H2 skewed
across assets (UBSe 372koz at US$1,823/oz AISC).
Hod Maden activities continue towards decision
Hod Maden initial site establishment and engineering activities continue towards a
decision. This high margin/grade project is low cost/capital intensity and targets
~200kozpa (~80kozpa SSR share) gold equivalent production (AuEq) for >13yrs from
2027.
Valuation: A$9.40/sh Buy rated (prev A$9.60/sh)
Our Price Target is 1x NPV derived using a long-term real US$1,950/oz gold price.
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Ann: SSR Mining Reports Second Quarter 2024 Results, page-2
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Last
$8.64 |
Change
0.010(0.12%) |
Mkt cap ! $35.12M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$8.65 | $8.65 | $8.59 | $41.90K | 4.865K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 470 | $8.49 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$8.71 | 1724 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 470 | 8.490 |
1 | 709 | 8.420 |
1 | 68 | 7.490 |
1 | 300 | 7.480 |
2 | 430 | 7.470 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
8.710 | 1724 | 1 |
8.750 | 12 | 1 |
8.800 | 663 | 4 |
8.880 | 950 | 1 |
9.000 | 1115 | 2 |
Last trade - 15.58pm 17/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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