Ann: Full Year Results - Financial Year Ended 30 June 2024, page-3

Origin as an entity have repeatedly shown they have no idea how to value assets. As a corporate body they are stuck in short-term groupthink. If the commodity price is low (whether oil, gas or wholesale electricity) they panic and try to sell the farm for chump change. If it's high they go on a spending spree and overpay for crap assets.

It's happened so repeatedly over the last 15 years it makes me think there must be something seriously flawed in their internal commodity forecasting, or their executive STI strategy, or both. All they seem to care about is the immediate result, they can't think long term.

APLNG is another painful example. In 2021 they sold 10% to CoP for $2.2B, driven by low oil prices and pressure from activist groups to divest fossil fuels.

Since then APLNG has paid Origin a distribution of $3.2B for its remaining 27.5% stake in just TWO YEARS. So the 10% stake CoP bought would have been paid $1.2B in that time - more than half of the sale price in just 2 years, in an asset that has at least 10 more years to run and likely 15 years.

It's no wonder CoP took up the pre-emptive rights, they doubtless couldn't believe their luck. Even accounting for discount factor and rehab costs at the end of life they got a bargain.

I was actually in favour of the takeover bid, because I'm sick of watching this mob torch my money. But I'm glad market events have proved Aus Super was right. Pity Origin couldn't see the NEM weakness was only temporary when they recommended the deal. I mean, it's not like it's their job to know that, right?