Ann: PRU: Perseus makes strategic invest. in Predictive Discovery, page-73

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Gusto8

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15/08/24

15:20

Post #: 75223105
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Originally posted by Fredbear2: ↑

I typically see only downside risk with the permit (which I think is in the bag - so really can only do worse to market expectations i.e. getting permit but with harsher conditions which leads to increased costs etc).

Similar on the DFS. Most of the upside is typically captured in Scoping Studies and Pre-Feasibility Studies. DFS usually only brings about worse results as more attention is paid to engineering and design and operational requirements/constraints, permitting restrictions, and optimism starts to fall away to realism (including contractors' prices). The only time you see upside is additional exploration (which is typically already factored in when results are announced or updated Mineral Resource - well before DFS) or there was some conservatism in early studies due to lack of testwork (e.g. pit wall angles due to lack of geotech). However, this is rare.

PDI can look at recutting the pit at higher gold prices (lowering cut-off grade), like De Grey did but it goes to higher costs and more ore at the back end (and often higher capital with bigger throughput). For Africa, I don't like it - get payback early and build scale incrementally. Too much risk with coups and changes in tax, and equity prices are overdiscounted.

So, as I've said, there is likely only downside in waiting. Perseus can sit and wait, check the boxes and potentially take it over in 18 months or so with no real change in price (except potentially linked to gold price movements). To my mind, need to break stranglehold sooner.

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PDI Price at posting: 22.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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