"Even the company stated End of July was a critical deadline etc "
I didn't see it written as a "critical deadline", in that it was an end of July or nothing scenario.
In the company's actual words, they said that they needed to start by end of July "to facilitate first production in Q2 2025" and that "The Company is planning all project activities to ensure the majorphosphate customer has the majority of its fertilizer requirements for the2025/26 growing season and in their warehouse by the end of December2025."
15th April 2024 announcement.
So end of July was the date that they needed to start in order for Carrinho to have "the majority of its fertilizer requirements for the2025/26 growing season" in the warehouse by the end of 2025 using a stage 1 plant and that's why they planned on a end of July date.
If Minbos starts 1 or 2 months later, the result would be that Carrinho would have less fertiliser by the end of the year - except that Lindsay has since stated that if they go straight to stage 2, (capacity is doubled) they could potentially make up for lost time from a later start.
That doesn't sound like July was critical other than to meet a particular production target under the stage 1 scenario.
It's not a binary outcome of end of July or nothing.
Lindsay is in Angola and no doubt will be trying to secure the offtake ASAP now that he has the SWF on board. If he gets it and the bank loan next week, the project construction could start around 5-6 weeks late. Either they produce the equivalent of 1-1.5 months less product or, if they go to stage 2, they might meet the original target still, depending on when they can start.
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Ann: Cabinda Phosphate Fertilizer Project Funding Update, page-421
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