General Thoughts, page-5133

The 40 Billion BBL number is not significant.

it's just a number, a single number does notreally mean anything. Once the plays are identified the potential contents are estimated using a range of estimates for each of the potential properties, gross rock volume, % of the gross that is reservoir rock,depth (and uncertainty) to the hydrocarbon/water contact (can be estimated using AVO), porosity (the volume that can contain fluids), hydrocarbon % in the porosity These numbers provide a distribution ofthe possible hydrocarbons in place that form a type of bell curve.


Thenext step is more complicated to determine the recoverable reserves whichinvolves production scenarios testing the concepts of how to produce the fieldand make money. To do this you need to pick a reservoir with avolume of hydrocarbons in place and look at a few field development scenariosto estimate costs, timings (cost over time) and sales.

I would assume from Iain's reference that number is that it may be a"notional 40 B bbl" field. I will be waiting with considerable interest when PCL finally releases their considered estimates for the plays on Saturn