Some talk today of the Clinuvel large undervaluation, IMO nothing shows that better than Disc. Clinuvel down yet again today thanks to the shorters, Disc up yet again on no news and nothing exciting to happen there for the best part of a decade IMO but that is still enough to consistently outperform profits, cash, a Blockbuster phase 3 trial and other massive growth opportunities like Tanning and Stroke at Clinuvel.
SPOILER ALERT 1: Disc Medicine up another 2.75% last night on no news I could find -they now have a valuation more than 3 times Clinuvel - AND Clinuvel is probably the strongest it has ever been and in the best position it has ever been in?Don't read on if you don't care for comparisons as that is what this thread is about, and as long as the enormous and paradoxical value discrepancy continues between these two companies I will keep updating and showing it. It is certainly a question I would like answered on why Clinuvel are incapable of attracting the same investor interest and company valuation as Disc, for example what does the board make of this situation and is CUV management doing a good job in this regard?
SPOILER ALERT 2: This comparison is going to be between two companies whose main concern is the EPP market, so there is no better stock for comparing either of these companies to. Strangely Clinuvel have never compared themselves to Disc but they do occasionally throw out some statements about 'market weakness' when markets are actually at ATH's, maybe this AGM they will care to elaborate on why Disc are superior in terms of attracting investor interest and protecting shareholder interests? I'm not sure if Disc have three investor relations experts on three continents but IMO Clinuvel should actively headhunt the Disc investor relations expert (pay them double or triple if they have to) because they are doing something right. Seemingly they can sell the cash burning, years off getting a drug possibly approved (just for EPP), highly risky story very well - while at CUV it's looking like the cashed up, very profitable, blockbuster phase 3, super blockbuster pipeline, amazing financial situation, absolute monopoly and targeting 'household name' status by 1/1/2026 story is having trouble attracting similar interest despite being valued at a much, much lower valuation? Comparison to follow, it's definitely a paradox which shows amongst other things how hedge funds and shorters can influence and control markets - ASIC data showing major short selling activity each and every day in CUV, but I don't have this data for Disc as listed in US.
Clinuvel and Disc medicine are both primarily about EPP right now, however Clinuvel has much, much more happening while Disc basically runs a couple of Phase 1 and 2s. Disc even flunked a recent EPP phase 2 on the time in sunlight endpoint not being significantly increased which is what EPP is all about, while CUV is running a Phase 3 into blockbuster Vitiligo with an already FDA approved drug.
Cash burningDisc LOST $76.4 Million USD ($116 M AUD) last year running Phase 1 and 2s while CUV made last FY $31.6 Million PROFIT after taxes.
Disc: Market cap $2.2 Billion (up more than 50% in 3 months)
* running some phase 1 and 2s, might have a clinical pathway forward in EPP but many years off entering that market if ever
* burning through cash which is ok for this stage, recently had no trouble raising more capital at a much higher valuation than CUV.
* Nothing in pipeline near comparable to Clinuvel pipeline
CUV:Market cap $0.70 Billion(no I didn't get those two valuations mixed up, the startup is worth $1.5 Billion more than the very profitable monopoliser - and Clinuvel haveabout $0.2 Billion cash in that valuation)
* complete monopoly in EPP market, recent update showed potential competitors struggling and CUV perhaps picking up patients from discontinued programs and completed trials. Scenesse with remarkable 95% patient retention.
* Possible expansion of number of implants in Europe to bring in line with research findings so perhaps increase to 6 from 3 or 4 (this would be huge)
* Already treating some children for EPP, hopefully will gain label expansion after further studies
*Vitiligo Phase 3 running, slated for FDA submission 2026, drug already FDA approved and SAFE for EPP.Vitiligo TAM mentioned $4.5 BILLION USD and 9% penetration years 1-2 giving $490 - $570 Million USD.Compelling pictures of treatment shown and lots of centres ready to go if/when approved.
* Phase 2 running in mega blockbuster Stroke indication
* Phase 2 to begin this year in mega blockbuster Parkinson's Disease
* Europe Orphan Drug designation for VP and XP
* Assist DNA REPAIR - the implications of this are enormous for both pharmaceuticals (eg XP) and cosmetics
* Many years of long term safety data with an already FDA, EMA, TGA approved drug.
* Stated intention by CEO to be a 'household name by 01/01/2026.
* Openly talking about a tanning product, clearly a viral product if they release it and would likely give them household name status (tanning, sun protection and maybe even skin cancer preventing all in one?? sounds like a good thing - we live in hope)
*Share buyback with stated intentto redistribute capital to shareholdersvia this method.Clinuvel stated how the share buyback will compound their strategy of minimising share dilution with 1.5 Million shares to be repurchased. (they only have 50 Million on issue which is also pretty amazing). Only a tiny percentage of cash reserves required to fund this share buyback and they could easily extend it if required as they also mentioned.
* A tightly held and lightly traded stock, easily manipulated unfortunately compounded by some weird management decisions and waffle over the years. I see the share buyback as an opportunity to turn this around by actively supporting shareholders by restoring value. Look at Cochlear; words: BUYBACK $75 Million and ACTION, $75 Million bought back on market simply and without fuss and Cochlear shareholders happy. Clinuvel words: BUYBACK 1.5 Million shares, ACTION (4 months later) less than 50 thousand shares bought back. This needs to change, actions need to match words in support of shareholders. The pipeline is exceptional, it is time to buyback shares at large scale and get investor relations to sell the story to the right people.
ALL IMO DYOR
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