ASX Today, page-43022

You seem quite confident in your statement, but is this purely speculative?

I'm comfortable with a price under $2 to get things moving. Here’s my perspective:

Would it be reasonable to speculate that the same entity buying shares might also be the one shorting them? In the event of a takeover (TO), shorts borrowed from the potential acquiring company would simply be returned to that company if the takeover proceeds. The primary purpose of these shorts could be to entice as many investors as possible to sell, with the rising short interest causing others to doubt their investment and sell, thus fuelling the downward trend. I don't believe there's any Chinese manipulation at play here, although I don't have factual evidence to support that claim.

Here’s how I see it unfolding:

Hancock likely paid a premium to outbid ALB. Through its numerous subsidiaries, Hancock may have borrowed shares to short, accumulating on one side while shorting on the other. Whether this is illegal, I’m not sure, but if the companies are sufficiently distinct, this might be a common practice. I’ll look into the legal aspects.

The shorting activity is likely supported by the drop in LIT prices, which Hancock has probably researched. The reality is that closing out 280 million short positions on the open market would be nearly impossible, necessitating either a capital raise or a takeover bid. The fact that these short positions aren’t decreasing, despite the company becoming less risky, suggests that those holding the short positions may also be holding the shares. When the takeover bid is made, the losses on the shorts will be significant, but it won’t matter because they’ll acquire the company at a discount. Their goal isn’t to profit from the shorts but to secure the company at a reduced price, with any losses on the shorts likely being written off as minimal in the grand scheme of things.

This is my thinking only and in no way financial advice. All i know and hope it that the TO bid will be higher than my average...enjoy the ride and i'm happy for anyone to share some thoughts on mine.