There was a fair bit going on in FY2024 with the Nude Lucy impairment, but in general the company continues to perform satisfactorily. in my opinion.
For what it's worth, a few things I picked up are:
1. The dividend of 13 cents for FY24 is not sustainable. Although strong free cashflow did cover this past year's dividend, the next few years will see the usual capex of store openings and upgrades, plus the acquisitions of the TAF franchise businesses ($88 to $100m).
2. The continual uptake of their own vertical brands (9% of sales) will continue to underpin solid gross margins.
3. USD 67 cents is a neutral setting for FY25, anything lower over this FY will be an earnings headwind. Higher will be a tailwind.
4. Wholesale was weak in FY25, but consistent with other retailers reporting of late - wholesale sales have turned positive in the new FY. Management indicated that shopping centre traffic has been rising, the first time I can recall hearing that since before the pandemic onset!
5. 1H25 is cycling weak trading all the way through 1H24, and given the trading update for 1H25, it's likely the Interim result in February 2025 will be solid. This was reinforced by management who confirmed that the current product pipeline is superior to FY24.
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