Weekly Review Li Stocks - 23rd Aug 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis. I also have performances of Li stocks for 2023 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week I have not added any new stocks to list, so my list still contains 90 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Market
- SP 500 is now on its way to make another all time high this week, barring anything dramatic like a black swan event. It dropped close to 10% from its all time high, ticked the box for many, and now seems to have no guilt in continuing in its merry way to the top. Finished week at 5634, up around 1.5% from last week 5554. All time high at 5669 is now nearly there.
- Volatility Index VIX is at 15.86, last week at 14.80, so slight increase but around 15 is still very bullish. VIX too has done its round to 65, got the tick and looks like ready to serve the bulls again. It was looking vulnerable couple of days back, but only slightly, no threat.
- Sentiment Indicator at 53 - Neutral - 1 week back on 35 Fear, so going in right direction too
- Bitcoin too has joined the party. It too went below 50k, got the tick and is now eyeing another all time high in mid 70ks in near future. Couple of weeks it was hovering around 60k. But as I wrote it look like normal churn before next leg, and its more looking like that now.
- Russell 2000 was the start performer of the week. We want this to be strongest, for risk assets, commodities, resources, small-caps, etc. It gained around 3.5% for the week. Looks like some who want this rotation from tech etc to other sectors, it may have started, but has a long way to go to make up for all the losses. It finished at 2218, from 2141 of last week.
- Yields slightly down from last week, hovering around 3.8, last week 3.9 - so right direction.
- Dollar Index too going like Yields, falling, in right direction
- Gold, Silver on the rise again, Oil - had fallen but trying to recover now
- Powell on Jackson Hole was dovish. I remember in 2022 when stocks were massacred, Powell was so hawkish in Jackson Hole. How tides have turned. Rate cuts are on the way. Stock market is going up. Time for many to make gains or recoup their losses - lets hope it plays out that way. Time to take risks, rather be risk-averse.
- So overall markets looking like regaining its loss of 10% - last week I wrote - "in a slightly positive frame this week". This week - very positive
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
- SP 500 may try to get to another all time high soon, very likely next week, who knows on Monday itself. So long as 5119 holds, the upward trend is intact.
- Russell 2000 is trying to recover, we need some big weekly jumps over here, 5%+. Took some good steps this week, 3.5%, but need more
- Economic data - No major data this week, so technicals and sentiment may drive markets
- Uranium Sector overview - I have been writing for couple of months, May end top, July end bottom, September end top. CCJ to reverse from here. I was writing that 39/40 is critical level, and a move in either direction may provide medium term direction. On Friday it has started a move, reached 43.49, finished at 42.61. I have also been writing till it crosses 45 and stays above that, reversal will not be confirmed. So we still don't have a confirmation. But odds that 35 may have been the bottom for this phase has increased. My play of bottoming here and topping Sep end/Oct begin is still intact. I have bought around 85% of what I had wanted to buy, 40% 2 weeks back, another 40% 1 week back, another 5% this week. If its looking all right this week then I may buy the rest. Spot price also did a scare/drama, dipped below psychological number of 80, but recovered on Friday, also on Kaz news, currently at 82.40, back in safe zone. So my theory is still in play, but anything can happen, so please dyor. ASX U stocks had a big drop this week, but could all change next week, as more people start believing we may have bottomed, we may do new highs within next couple of months.
- Lithium Sector overview - A very odd week, but I will still say that it was positive. There are mixed signals. Positive part - US and ASX Li stocks are on the ascendancy. Spot price is on the up. ALB is close to 30% up from its lows - that is one of the best results in a long time. We have 2 green weeks in my 90 stocks that I track after a while, before that 4 weeks of red. So everything to like and feel that we may have bottomed or are bottoming here. But there is one curious play. China Li, especially Ganfeng. Its a big stock. A market leader. Its is still playing like last several months. This week again it made fresh 52 week lows, finished the week on the lowest number in last 52 weekly finish/daily finish. So it is not joining the party, yet. I believe, that this divergence cannot stay. Just based on logic. If sector has to go up, bottom, reverse, then major players have to participate. So I feel either Ganfeng has to rise or ALB has to fall - which will blink? I don't know, but lets hope Ganfeng comes around and ALB is in three figures shortly - 106 above will be very positive.
- REE Sector overview - REE stocks having a similar play like Li sector. Fort 5 weeks, REE stocks on average were in red. Last week we got first green after long time. This week another big green, so very positive. WA1 is back it looks, LYC doing well, so many others like BRE/MEI/ENR who may be waiting for direction, could possibly start making a move this week. A big weekly rise of 8% across 30 REE stocks I track gives lot of hope for medium term. .
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Personally:
This week for me similar to last 2 weeks. I had bought 80% of my U stocks I wanted to buy before this week, picked up a few more, now at 85%. Rest I want to buy when the price goes up, otherwise I want to keep some ammo if prices do fall. Li/REE I have not started to buy. I am getting signals of bottoming/reversal, but U sector signals are more advanced at this stage, its providing me more confidence that it may have bottomed. I know I will never pick bottom, so want to see some confirmation of trend reversal. Hopefully soon. U sector is also playing to my theory which I have been writing every week for last 3 months, so my confidence is better there. But that's just me, my bias, for all practical purposes the reverse may happen, U stocks stay here and others go on a big ride, but I will catch it, maybe miss the initial part. This week U stocks were in consolidation. Next week I expect first moves. It will not go in a straight line. We don't have confirmation of reversal yet. So it might be like 2 steps forward, 1 step back, but lets. Better to follow price action than assume. U stocks I am playing (LOT/AGE/CXU/EL8/BMN/BOE/DYL/PDN/SLX/AEE). I like to spread, in case one or two doesn't work. Its individual choice, sometimes one stock may give biggest rise. I try to reduce risk of specific stocks not doing well. Besides Uranium, I am playing very cautiously, not playing Li/REE sector blindly at this stage. Just a few stocks here and there. Other plays in health stocks, with some splattering across Gold and Oil/gas - most of these I play standard spreading the money, so don't usually write there, but currently I have got around 10 stocks in these sector I am playing there. Main health stocks - DXB/BOT/PYC, Gold - PNR - I have been writing about them for several months now.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- This week was a positive play from SYA. Not much to show on the report, but still a good play. Touched 3 after a long time. Just shows what small sentiment change can do. Also, previous week we did 2.4. This week 2.6 was the low. So a much better play.
- From a weekly perspective moved from 2.6 to 2.7 a slight gain for the week. Last week we moved from 2.7 to 2.6, so back at 2 weeks back. Overall still playing in the zone.
- Personally have not yet bought back. It looks ages now when I held. Last couple of years I have had only a spattering of holdings at times, I used to try but seeing a drop 10/15% used to exit. Overall would have been a break even for me, and I feel I would have held for only 5% of the time. But things will change one day, I am hoping.
- ASX Li stocks that I track gained 6% this week. Last week was 4% gain, Before that, 5 consecutive weeks of red. So back to back green is clearly a sign that something is changing. There is no confirmation yet, but there are big hopes. I know many are hurting, lets hope we are finally seeing some change.
- US Li gained 9% for the week. Last week 2% gain. So having been batter for over a month, they are saying - we have had enough. Bodes well for us.
- ALB which for several months I have been writing I use as barometer, is on the run, fortunately on the up this time. It needs support. It needs Ganfeng to join. But on its own, a very spectacular week, is now 30% up from its lows. Last time it did that was when 106 was the low and it played in 130s. unfortunately that didn't end well. Lets hope this time its different.
- Li stocks down 41% for the year, so not a good look, but better than last week 47% down.
- On Friday general markets were in green, US li stocks also in green, a decent green. All eyes on Ganfeng on Monday. We will open before that. In green. But what Ganfeng does after 1130 AM could change that. So for those looking at short-term play, Ganfeng may give the clue, after 1130 AM. Lets hope it turns around and follows ALB/Spot etc.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks
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(20min delay)