There will always be risks and in fact many many risks for each project, at each stage, in each jurisdiction. To move from A to B there is risk. However to have moved from A to have come to Z, it means the project has overcome or escaped many risks and there are less risks ahead. In other words, for every drilling round passed successfully with gold interception, the company has overcome some risks to face the next set of risks in the next drilling round or the next step. Everyone understand this.
Does BEZ has risk? Absolutely.
Does SXG has risks? Absolutely.
Does AGC has risk? Absolutely. But the risks are way more than BEZ's risks that is for sure.
Does PDI has risks with its project in Burkina Faso in Africa with history of civil wars, factional wars, coups, corruption, and outright nationalisation or confiscation of a project? I leave it up to people to decide. But not for me thanks. Current coup leader said they will protect the project doesn't mean the next coup leader will do the same.
Back to AGC. Why did I mention that AGC will need to spend $100mil on drilling and general working capital expenses if it is lucky to continue to hit more gold in each of its next drilling campaigns? Here is the figure to consider: Besra has spent more than $40mil (AUD $60mil) since 2006 on exploration alone. That is 18 years ago and continued over the last few years. In the new world of high inflation and continuous increase in everything we buy and pay for nowaday, that figure is more likely to be more than AUD $100mil to be conservative. On top of drilling expenses, for each $1mil spent on drilling, each exploration company is more than likely to spend equal amount of money on general working capital. If a company has spent $50mil in total in say 2 years, it is likely more than $25mil is contributed to general working expenses. In other words, if AGC is to continue to hit more gold in many of its next rounds of drilling over the next 5-10 years to be able to come to 3mil oz maiden resource statement it will likely need to spend way more than $100mil.
Bez has spent more than USD $40mil (AUD $60mil) on exploration since 2006 on more than 250,000m drilling. This is massive scale of drilling to come to 3mil oz MRE. 5mil oz MRE is the next target.
250,000m of drilling = massive amount of drilling = massive amount of money and time resources involved and massive amount risks have been overcome.
AGC is at $90mil cap, essentially based on a single round of drilling (less than 1000m of drilling) with EV at $70mil compared to BEZ's 250,000m of drilling with 3mil oz resource and additional many rounds of drilling assay results that are way more thicker interception or higher gold grades than AGC's results. Plus, BEZ has completed so many important works including metallurgical study, baseline surveys, water and energy studies, PFS, EIA approval, pilot plant equipments ordered, manufactured, shipped and arrived on site, DFS preparation works, tailing dam land access secured with 15 years lease agreement, off-take agreement of 275000 oz worth AUD $1bil at current spot gold price. 275000oz × USD $2500 ÷ 0.68 AUD/USD = AUD $1bil.
