Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-25

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cophot

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27/08/24

18:39

Post #: 75401085
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Originally posted by dawgfather: ↑

Gina did exactly what you've just described over at LTR. Was paying up near $3 a share from memory - LTR now at 78 cents...

Plenty of speculating as to what her motives were / are. Maybe with hindsight it was a mistake? Or maybe she's got very long term ambitions? Sometimes people assume that rich people know everything and never make mistakes, but this is definitely not true. Look at MINs mistakes with their 19.9% stake on WC8 as well as purchases of DLI (both make no sense given current prices).

I'm also pretty sure that if Ana over at Sigma was given her time again, she probably would have accepted one of the likely bids that were more than likely on the table in early 2023 when Sigma was trading between $30-$40 a share.

So rich/senior people are also capable of poor capital deployment.

Also, the term blocking stake just means any stake above 10% (because it allows the holder to block a compulsory acquisition which requires 90% of shares).

Something that came up in a chat with another investor today is the idea that FIRB approval process for a potential foreign counter bidder (e.g. China) can probably be avoided if another bidder proposed a takeover whereby they acquire the legal entity through which LRS operates in Brazil (Belo Lithium Mineracao Ltda) - rather than buying all of the shares in LRS.

Whereas, if a foreign bidder wants to acquire Colina by acquiring all the shares in LRS - this would likely invoke FIRB because it would mean acquiring an ASX listed company.

Obviously FIRB is not applicable if the counter-bidder were to be a domestic entity such as a Rio Tinto.

PLS has clearly signalled that now is an excellent time (for companies with a big enough balance sheet) to make moves on stranded assets like LRS which have Tier 1 assets, but lack the balance sheet to execute. This should (theoretically) mean that companies like RIO or maybe the Chinese who have large balance sheets may be interested in Colina.

North america is an interesting question as well. Colina is the #1 best placed asset to provide a supply of high quality spod to america by late 2026 - the shipping costs are very cheap. However, there's obviously the question of american companies having enough foresight and confidence to actually put their money where their mouths are (which is what the chinese have been doing for years now).

The quality of Colina has me still holding all my shares, because I know that quality assets are at least some chance of a counter-bid.

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The American mouths are now on the new President of America.
Let us see what happens later on this year and I believe the best to come is 2025, my prediction we are in the right place in the market.

LRS Price at posting: 21.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 21.5¢		Change -0.010(4.44%)		Mkt cap ! $602.3M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
22.0¢	22.3¢	21.0¢	$6.761M	31.58M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	119054	21.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
22.0¢	3606678	10

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	119054	0.215
11	1200743	0.210
9	1541958	0.205
7	1438353	0.200
10	1940100	0.195

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.220	3606678	10
0.225	512448	5
0.230	106709	5
0.235	2046874	22
0.240	1450950	20

Last trade - 16.10pm 03/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

LRS (ASX) Chart

Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-25

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Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-25

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