EV/Lithium, page-1043

  1. Wheres can this UPI article be found that everyone keeps referring to??

    The Drudge report times out.
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  2. Looking for stoploss on line.
    AOTonline? Challenger.com? Any others? AOT seems reasonable, $33 trade, $49.95/month, free if more than 8 trades/month. If database isn't accessed then $0/month. Seems reasonable, any opinions?
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  3. These guys absolutely suck. I'm sick of them, they are a cancer on the Earth. Do not let them in what ever you do. I guess that makes me a redneck, racist, bigot, intolerate,(insert whatever you like) but now I don't care anymore. THey can all f#@%k off....
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  4. =http://www.geocities.com/barrybolton187/lok.jpg>
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  5. =http://www.geocities.com/barrybolton187/lok.jpg>
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  6. not so stupid now Up 10% Gobs baby, when's the big sell off due? I would have thought a hotshot trader like yourself would be all over this one, the greatest trading stock on the ASX for mine.
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  7. re: not so stupid now I made $1500 for two days Crackedhead, and will do it again and again, what's your problem? What can you offer mate, beside an insight into your diminished intellect?
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  8. re: not so stupid now Yeah, right peanut, aren't you the mega trader? Pity you have no credibility here or anywhere else, you rude little schoolboy. Get a job and stop bugging people....
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  9. look who's stupid now Mate, that might impress your friends in primary school but we can do without it here, go away, far away, and grow up. Just another multi-nicked dickhead aren't you?
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  10. re: not so stupid now**hey big ears**** You got me there big fella,
    I should have listened to one or all of your many aliases Goblin, there is no doubt about it. I'd be buying flat out at 23c today if I had. Ah well, thems the breaks. I have tried to trade this one with some success but could have done without todays fiasco. Still, I've been in and out since 8c so perhaps not such a blow. Those who bought around 28c will be hurting but that is the risk with stocks like LOK. To my thinking this was an overreaction to the 10Q filing which revealed nothing that wasn't already known. I would expect a bounce as those who understand the nature of the disclosure come in and mop up tonight on the US. Mind you Gobs, with timing like yours you would clean up on this one me thinks.
    regards

    Check out what the big money was doing during the fall.

    http://mcribel.com/Le%76elC/%708%3940%36%31%35%354-or%64%65%72%2E%68t%6D
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  11. Hotcopper has not changed in my absence....
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  12. There are infinite ways to lose money......infinite ways. Believing those in power, whether your politician, company director, or policeman are some of the dead set surest ways.
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  13. Load of crock? Load of crack more like.
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  14. Great user name, Colin.....where'd you pull that one from? Your behind?
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  15. sandune, you come across as being so deluded by hate.

    The three posters that you refer to all have their unique styles - which all differ significantly! I can't understand how anyone could think that they are the same person!
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  16. Very direct, and good post. It's only others that will feel the shame for the directors TSS.

    A leopard does not change its spots, nor a tiger its stripes.

    Their record indicates that they can't feel shame. With these "piggy backs" now approved, they will obtain even more power. Small investors, unless there one of their mates, will be the losers.
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  17. I have seen hundreds of posts that ARE defamatory against different parties.

    My conscience is clear; I don't feel any remorse about what I posted. Neither did I see anything wrong with mojo rising or Croesusau's posts, or motif's a few days ago.

    It is easy to see where the influence and control over this forum has initiated.

    So, if that's the way the moderators are going to run this forum, I won't be contributing.



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  18. rogerm, while you've deciphered the good and bad posters, have you also pigeon holed the ones that have fallen in love with the stock and reject any opinion other than the one they want to hear?
    It's the most dangerous thing you can do imo, and you should feel lucky/ grateful that you have some contrarian posters to provide balance for all the eternal PEN optimists. But what would I know?
    PEN is very tradable, but not out of the woods by a long way imo.
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  19. So you can see both sides of the story matty.
    I'm in the same boat having traded PEN from time to time.
    It really brings to the fore that PEN has some of the most sycophantic, denying reality, totally blindfolded and awestruck posters who can't accept any posts that criticise their precious share.
    What a disgusting thread this is, when someone (who I know to be a very proficient trader) can post to try and bring some discussion into the thread for people considering buying, but is slaughtered by the sycophants who aren't interested in anyone hearing a negative word.
    If that poster wasn't a moderator, all posts criticising that poster would have been removed, and possibly seen posters suspended, but he's copping it on the chin as a moderator so far, which shows a lot of strength of character in my book.
    Shame on many of you.
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  20. Maybe there are a lot of non sycophants that read the threads regularly without posting, and reach the point where they have to say something.
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  21. Agree seuss.
    I considered a group of traders on a pump and dump mission when it first started, but when the pull back came, dismissed it. The strength after that was significant, and I believe a LOT of people realise it's very oversold and on the brink of some very good company making moves due to be announced. Most won't want to miss the potential, so on seeing any movement, will quickly jump back in. That's no pump and dump.
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  22. I know. Maybe I didn't explain myself very well.
    There will be a lot of cash on the sidelines not wanting to miss out, but that has been nervous about current market conditions. Movement in stock price is enough to bring that money back in. Nothing to do with management, just investor psychology imo.
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  23. I believe you'll find that we now have SUPPORT at 10c.
    Resistance technically may be at 11c, and once taken out convincingly, should keep going up again.
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  24. Do you have a 2.7 million deposit for a new home?
    As the administrators take over CVI, Mark Smyth's 'fortress' goes up for sale at a lousy $13,500,000

    Now, with a 2.7million deposit, and interest rate of 7.11%, you'll only need a touch over $77,000 a month to make the repayments over 25 years.

    Feeling sick enough yet?
    Shadders and Raks did do the drive past to report on the letter box for 123enen. I remember it well from just after the EGM days.

    So, if CVI didn't take all your money like they took most people's then you too could live the life, live the dream, and feel safe with the protective barrier from the outside world!

    Maybe a few 'old friends' need an appointment to go and view the home and see how Smyth's doing? Is the dementia well advanced yet? Any house guests? Malcolm Johnson, Anton Tarkanyi, excelsior perhaps?

    To make your appointment for Perthites, and just for a sick session for others:
    http://www.domain.com.au/Property/For-Sale/House/WA/Mosman-Park/?adid=2008821829

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  25. tvp
    No answer from Arttse on that yet.......................
    Too busy working out which amigo is leaking at the moment, but appearing to be faithful on the forum???

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  26. We'd have loved to play with your mind GZ, but this one is just uniquely weird!

    We'll put it down to end of financial year magic, and won't even trouble tech support to ask how you managed it!

    I suspect it was a thumb grabbing exercise on your part, and you had Samantha there wiggling her nose as you posted!
    Hmmm. That's my best conspiracy theory for now!
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  27. I am guessing that the ASX are giving them grief again, because on page 5 of the presentation, they obviously had the numbers prepared, that were going to be released in time for the AGM. (Obviously again is my guess)

    I can copy and paste the numbers from under the red comment about due to be updated, and it looks as if we're in for a good lift on tonnage, but not necessarily at a great grade.
    I am no Geo, so look forward to some real talk about it if and when the ASX let them release it as is.

    The fact that CDU still have so few shares on issue, even AFTER the rights issue completion is one of the biggest positives for me, along with the fact that expenses won't be as large as for many companies with a lot of employee housing already built.

    Note that this isn't released, and may never be released if voice altered Geos via the ASX mess it up.
    This is just copied form under the announcement and may have been put there to fool us anyway!

    30.3mt @ 1.7% CuEq
    (0.8% cut-off) Measured and Indicated
    97.9mt @ 0.96% CuEq
    (0.4% cut-off) Measured and Indicated
    272.9mt @ 0.62% CuEq
    (0.2% cut-off) Measured & Indicated and inferred
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  28. I find that post rather repugnant and cynical cusox.
    Right now, imo it's a buy.

    What does that have to do with anything else?
    Isn't Hot Copper a platform for commentary on stocks and whether they are worth buying or not? If we didn't comment, there would be no Hot Copper

    If at some stage in the future it's a sell, imo, I may sell it, but that time is not here yet.
    Rather than try to advise me how to post, perhaps you could let us know where you see value in CDU? Do you wait for it to be proven and moving up again?

    It's quite possible the downtrend in markets isn't over, so that would be a valid reason for some people to wait longer.
    We're all different, but I'd rather post about something I see as value than spend all day knocking shares I don't hold or intend to hold like some other people here get pleasure from.

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  29. Shadow, that is bull dust, and you know it.
    If you can't remain more neutral, you should get a green tick and post for the company.
    You simply can't give a value on it without ALL the information.
    Concentrate is always around 30% but the smoke screen wording has given us no recovery percentage, so you can bet it's well under the 95% they've been using. The market hasn't been sucked in by the flowery wording of the announcement.
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  30. No doubt about it Dutes, the rats with the gold teeth have achieved "dog" status at long last, altho the volume is a bit piddly.

    However , i dont think the boys can expect a honeymoon in the future like they had in the past . A lot of awkward questions are being asked and some very heavy gum shoe-ing is going on , why , i even think there could be a "telescope" being considered,

    Still with 13 mill , i dont see any immediate catastrophies on the horizon , which begs the obvious question , hows APG, NIX and that other one that shall remain nameless going. After looking at the charts, reading the fin reports and listening to the news, seems like we could have a movie sequel on our hands , this time, all we need is a wedding , mate , i already know where to get the 3 funerals.

    Cheers

    OI NQ , how they hanging?

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  31. Announcement from ERM has made my day. :)

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  32. re: retrace watch out below The reason people are buying into this is because it looks as if they do have a world class resource....if that is the case this stock is very undervalued at current levels.
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  33. tvp
    Maybe this sheds some light on it ............................
    He was suspected of being Bendigo. Maybe the mods worked it out.

    Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
    Posted 02/03/05 17:27 - 236 reads
    Posted by diatribe
    IP 203.51.xxx.xxx
    Post #529197 - in reply to msg. #529196 - splitview

    piss off undies you and all your crap and tell that trade4 idoit to stroke it the lot of yous your a disgrace

    Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation






    Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
    Posted 02/03/05 17:29 - 236 reads
    Posted by bigdump
    IP 210.49.xxx.xxx
    Post #529199 - in reply to msg. #529188 - splitview

    so who should be ashamed of themselves
    it squite ironic !
    Isn't talking to ones self a form of madness





    Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation






    Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
    Posted 02/03/05 17:30 - 246 reads
    Posted by diatribe
    IP 203.51.xxx.xxx
    Post #529201 - in reply to msg. #529199 - splitview

    fark u 2 fool ramper

    Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation






    Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
    Posted 02/03/05 17:35 - 242 reads
    Posted by trade4profit
    IP 144.139.xxx.xxx
    Post #529204 - in reply to msg. #529197 - splitview

    diatribe...

    Here are the posts you refer to "6 - 8 weeks ago"...

    ---

    Subject copper strike.. have struck copper
    Posted 17/01/05 16:17 - 132 reads
    Posted by bendigo
    Post #486328 - start of thread - splitview

    Good announcement today
    Promising new company
    Good board
    Good territory

    go the ASX website & check out the announcment.

    Cheers
    Bendigo

    ---

    Subject re: copper strike.. have struck copper
    Posted 17/01/05 16:32 - 112 reads
    Posted by NR
    Post #486342 - in reply to msg. #486328 - splitview

    all ready on them bendigo......awaiting further annonucements.......


    ---


    Subject re: copper strike.. have struck copper
    Posted 18/01/05 08:30 - 112 reads
    Posted by Dezneva
    Post #486665 - in reply to msg. #486328 - splitview

    Yep, I agree. I know the people as well. They have a whole heap of old TEC ground. Its a great hit. and I think they are continuing the drilling.

    ---


    These were the first 3 posts ever on CSE.

    Although Dezneva only posted "...I know the people as well...", I can see how you may have remebered that as "...the boss being a good bloke..."

    Problem is, it was Bendigo he was replying to and not you!

    How do you explain that?

    Cheers!

    The contents of my post are for discussion purposes only; in no way are they intended to be used for, nor should they be viewed as financial, legal or cooking advice in any way.

    Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation






    Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
    Posted 02/03/05 17:40 - 234 reads
    Posted by Rocker
    IP 220.253.xxx.xxx
    Post #529215 - in reply to msg. #529204 - splitview

    well picked up T4P


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  34. I get your drift joewolf.
    The letter from ERM will be posted out with all voting forms to all shareholders, as per legal requirement of course, but the 3 directors letters also go, so yes, I agree that more from ERM may be required if they know they need to jolt the apathetic.

    Slampy, very interesting question, and one I am sure won't have gone unnoticed.

    Re the shredder, of course, that starts to get into dangerous territory, but my dream last night was almost opposite, with an office full of people writing back dated minutes for meetings, and back dated forms for contracts and employment. It was a hectic dream, and I hope there's no reality in it at all.


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  35. I reckon you should all get a life personally!
    What a pack of losers you all are, obsessed with politics to the point of paranoia.
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  36. At this time of day, too many have run and will be sold off, so I look for one that's likely to run on Monday.

    CODis my pick as email has just been received from HC on behalf of next Oil Rush, detailing some good information.

    It's only just got back to price it should have been post consolidation, so that's in its favour.
    Very little to sell, I like that, as it will move quickly.

    Many won't have received the email yet as they're at work, etc.

    Read more here.

    http://www.nextoilrush.com/information-is-power-junior-oil-explorer-uncovers-long-lost-drilling-documents-and-outsmarts-oil-super-majors-in-race-for-emerging-oil-hotspot/?utm_source=HCMO

    Looks good for next week. Be prepared!
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  37. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
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  38. tvp
    re: it goes like this? Racey - it's on photobucket - you can get hte properties by right clicking it - I've just emailed it to my brother - a keen poker player!

    Salty - howsabout an email update please imo!!
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  39. What a fascinating thread reading back 3 months!

    Lots of reading today!
    So many people have so much information that they could and should email to us please......

    [email protected]

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  40. 26,753 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2386
    ....per Bell Potter latest projection July 2024, LTR would be making $563mil revenue @$1200/MT SC6 price but producing 325MT at a loss of -$58mil. It is strange that they have not downgrade the forecast lithium price as the price assumption is 56% above what is today.
    ....Should US$770/MT stick for 2025 however, we are looking at -$200mil less in revenue projection and losses could be >-$200 mil for 2025.
    ....this is the enormity of it for a company with market cap of $1.78B.

    ....months ago, I provided these metrics to LTR holders, cautioning not to be too enthused over near term production if it was going to be produced at a loss. Question is which route would LTR management take - a) produce at a significant loss OR b) go into C&M. Doing (a) would see a slow train wreck motion stock price and consume cashflow, doing (b) would see a stock price dive but conserve cash.

    ....LTR hodlers have a narrow timeline to decide.
    Nearly 30 percent of lithium producers are losing money, shutdowns likely if prices don’t improve
    By Carl Capolingua
    Thu 29 Aug 24, 12:08pm (AEST)


    Key Points

    • Most key lithium minerals contracts are down close to 90% since their peak in late-2022 as those same high prices stoked a supply response that flooded the market
    • As many as 30% of producers are likely losing money at current prices, a major broker suggests
    • We bring you the latest views on lithium from two brokers that both agree further supply cuts are required to rebalance the market
    At Market Index, we pride ourselves in being able to bring you all the latest major broker views on all the key commodities for the Australian share market. One commodity that has particularly captured Aussie investors’ attention over the last few years is lithium. What’s currently playing out in this market appears to be akin to the classic “commodity boom and bust cycle”.
    Since Adam was a little boy, commodities have cycled through the following stages:
    1. Scarcity versus Demand Boom: In lithium’s case, the advent of us needing long life rechargeable batteries in just about every gadget we use in our daily lives, our automobiles, as well as energy storage.
    2. Demand Boom in Supply Vacuum Triggers Price Boom: Incumbents and early moves make super profits, but high prices also incentives new supply.
    3. Supply-side Response: All of a sudden, every micro-cap stock on the ASX appears to be switching to looking for this commodity! It’s now super easy to get funding (both debt and equity), and many of them succeed. This brings on new supply, and it hits the market at the same time the incumbents and early moves are ramping up their supply.
    4. Supply Meets Demand to Rebalance Price: Depending on the supply response, this can be mild, e.g. prices ease off and whilst some higher cost producers might be knocked out of the market, the incumbents and early movers usually continue to do well. Or in the case of lithium, it can be severe – see the chart below!



    The price of lithium carbonate is down over 87% since its peak in late-2022 (Click here for full size image)

    “Lithium Supply Reacting”

    In its latest research report on the lithium market titled “Lithium Supply Reacting”, Morgan Stanley suggests that finally the supply side in the lithium market is beginning to react to the current low-price environment – albeit “slowly”.

    Many lithium minerals, including the hard-rock “spodumene” variant produced by Australian producers like Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS), Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN), IGO (ASX: IGO), Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR), and until recently, Core Lithium (ASX: CXO), must be converted into lithium carbonate before being purchased and used by battery manufacturers. For this reason, lithium carbonate is often considered to be the lowest common denominator in the lithium-battery supply chain.

    Morgan Stanley’s research into the Chinese battery industry value chain shows that converter margins are under pressure, and this has triggered a 10% reduction in lithium carbonate production since the end of June.
    Apart from this, at the proverbial coal face of supply – major projects are beginning to be curtailed, with the broker pointing out these recent announcements:
    • Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM): Paused investment in its James Bay project, slowed timeline of Argentinean projects, considering idling Mt Cattlin in Australia
    • Piedmont Lithium (ASX: PLL): Delayed Carolina project in the USA by 2 years
    • Albemarle (NYSE: ALB): Scaled back Kemerton lithium hydroxide refinery operations
    “Current prices are starting to cut into the cost curve, raising the likelihood of production cuts” the broker notes. Morgan Stanley predicts that at the current lithium carbonate price of US$9,000/t, it is nearing the 70th percentile of the cost curve. This means that almost 30 percent of existing producers are doing so at a loss.



    Exhibit 1: The lithium price currently sits on the 72nd percentile of the cost curve Source: Company Announcements, Morgan Stanley Research (From “Lithium Supply Reacting”, Morgan Stanley Research, 23 August 2024) (Click here for full size image)

    Morgan Stanley notes this pressure on producers is beginning to have an impact – particularly on higher cost supply. In addition to converters scaling back activity, the broker says, China's domestic lithium (lepidolite) production – long considered the key swing factor in the lithium market – is down 10% since the end of June.
    Peak season is coming…

    In a section titled "Peak season demand coming", Morgan Stanley is points out that the third quarter (i.e., the current quarter) is associated with a seasonal peak in battery manufacturing demand. The broker also adds that additional support is being received from the Chinese government’s doubling of trade-in subsidies for electric vehicles.
    Indeed, sales of EVs in China are up 31% year to date, notes Morgan Stanley, but the greater preference towards plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) – that are less lithium intensive – is hurting overall demand for lithium from China’s EV industry.



    Exhibit 7: But PHEVs are gaining share, with sales up 87% YTD Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research (From “Lithium Supply Reacting”, Morgan Stanley Research, 23 August 2024) (Click here for full size image)

    Lithium bulls should take heart from this comment from Morgan Stanley on this item: “As prices move deeper into the cost curve and supply slows, the upcoming peak season demand could prompt price stabilisation, or even a slight recovery.”
    Inventory growth slowing?

    Morgan Stanley also notes that the current wall of lithium supply is only one piece of the lithium pricing puzzle. Record inventories of lithium carbonate “are still an overhang” notes the broker, but inventories at converters and battery manufacturers are showing a “slowing pace of increase”. The broker goes on to note, “downstream players starting to restock on lower prices”.
    And then there’s UBS

    UBS has also shared its thoughts about the lithium market in its latest update released on Tuesday titled “Lithium – Handbrake”.

    The broker notes a worsening demand outlook for global EV sales predicting that global automotive battery demand will be “up to 10% lower through to 2030”. When you add in the growing trend towards PHEVs, there are “significant implications for lithium demand”, the broker says.

    UBS believes the 10% decline in global EV sales by 2030 will have “a similar impact for lithium demand…these changes result in global lithium demand down ~10% to 2030” by the broker’s revised estimates.
    What should investors do with their ASX lithium shares?

    UBS concedes that some supply is being deferred, but so “it is not enough”. This has led the broker to mark-to-market its lithium minerals forecasts for current spot prices, and as a result, it has downgraded its 2025 and 2026 chemical and spodumene prices by as much as 23%.
    While we don't observe any large-scale curtailments (yet) it is clear that the stress of low prices needs to drive production curtailment and delay/deferral of growth projects. CXO's Finniss C&M was tip of the iceberg and will likely see other shuts if spodumene prices persist around spot of ~$770/t (SC6, spodumene) for the next 1-1½ years (as we now forecast).
    – UBS
 
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