The good news is that data from the last 3 years shows that we are at the tail end of this process. In previous years, pending cases that are older than 6 months make up 9 to 10%. There is a strong drop off for pending cases older than 12 months: 0.9% Talga has just crossed 11 months (if going by the original date, and not considering the power of attorney delays).
0.9% implies odds of 111/1 in statistical terms this is called an Outlier. What was it about that case that turned it into and outlier? Was there a lot of adjournments seeking further information? Throwing up a coin every month for 7 months coming down tails 7 times in a row is odds of 128/1. So the two are in the same ballpark.
TGL is approaching that extraordinary outlier case. The odds to date of no decision must soon be approaching 100/1.
Which for me raises the question. WHY?
I can't get it out of my head that this is just a straight up and down simple case, so how can an 11 month delay occur. What don't I know.
I agree there seems to be an implication that suggests surely a decision is pending soon. Is that like saying surely the next coin toss has to come up heads.
I don't know.
What happens if TLG goes into the uncharted territory of no news every month. Does that mean surely next month?
There is a dark voice inside of me saying something like this. The SC must know of the pending Dec CMRA ruling. The conversation goes something like this. "We are going to have to deal with that ruling at some time. We have a current outstanding case that fits the bill. Do we deal with it before the CRMA is invoked or put it to the test in Dec?"
The answer lies in that coin toss for Sep, Oct and Nov..
cheers Lies
TLG Price at posting:
44.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)