modelling, as I've always said, is nothing more than a very educated guess.
the inputs of variables are so many and complex with interactions which can alter the outcome - the flapping of the butterfly's wings are enough to make the difference between a flood from a hurricane to a balmy and comfortable day.
therefore modelling is not an accurate predictor.
you're quite right to take any predictions dubiously, sceptically.
but taking a good look at the data from observations shows that its intensity of weather systems that is the most common and predictable change from GW, which can be easily seen in the physics of atmospheric carbon. we don't need predictions but we doo need concerted action, globally and nationally, to reduce our GHG emissions. this is the imperative.
