capital raising a smart move?, page-29

Have to disagree with you there Play2win.
Baillieu Research has given a number of scenario's for this.
The 4tcf you talk about having to be better than, is the same size a Wheatstone. They have two trains planned.

http://www.meoaustralia.com.au/content/Document/MEO%20Artemis%20Outline%20July%202010.pdf

Less than full project scenario In the event that the Artemis exploration project proves up a gas field that is smaller than that normally required for an LNG project, the field will still have significant commercial value due to its proximity to nearby LNG projects that are short of gas. To illustrate this point, we have prepared a scenario where a small-scale discovery at Artemis was used to supply sufficient gas feedstock for half of a world-scale (4mtpa) LNG project ? roughly 112 Petajoules a year ? and paid the project operator a relatively high gas tolling fee of US$4.50 per Gigajoule. Even in this scenario, a small discovery of less than 1.5 Tcf of gas would deliver significant cash flow to MEO.
􀂅 Our preliminary modelling shows that a half-train toll-based gas supply deal would have the following economic
outcomes for MEO?s 25 percent stake in Artemis.

Please note....
Clearly even a small-scale discovery in Artemis would be a
company-maker for MEO.

Petrobras Funding Scenario Initial Cash Bonus US$m 31.5 Back Cost Recoupment US$m 7.5 First Well Funding US$m 41 Second Cash Bonus US$m 31.5
Second Well Funding US$m 62
Third Well Funding US$m 62
Maximum Buy-in Cost US$m 235.5
Success scenario reserves Bcf 12000
Success scenario reserves Mmboe 2000
MEO interest in project % 25%
Implied valuation of MEO interest A$m 131
MEO Australia
Artemis-1 success scenario valuation
Low Case A$/shr 0.76
Mid Case $2.28
High Case $4.56
Artemis success scenario gas Bcf 4000 8000 12000
mmboe 667 1333 2000
MEO share mmboe 167 333 500
Assumed market valuation US$/boe 2 3 4
MEO share US$m 333 1000 2000
MEO share A$m 370 1111 2222
Value per MEO share A$/shr 0.76 2.28 4.56 Artemis Half Train Supply Deal Economics
Y-1 Y-2 Y-3 Y-4 Y-5 Y-6
Revenue 57.3 196.4 226.0 232.1 238.1 244.2
Ebitda 26.4 89.8 101.7 102.8 103.8 104.9
NPAT 20.4 50.2 63.0 67.2 74.0 80.7