While posting recently to Chem I admitted I had not put out a revenue prediction for Q1 2025. As I said then Volume is a real big unknown, and this has made me timid on the prediction. I am always telling others to remember KISS so I will apply it to myself and here is my Q1 revenue prediction. First price The price is easy. I believe in a 90-day Book to Bill delay so the price for NdPrO is 380 RMB Which is same as Q4. See chart one for more info or if you want to take out 90 day BTB. So price is easy. 380 RMB WV / KG.
Now the hard one. Volume. IF AL wants to keep her prediction for CY 2024 run rate She has to start ramping production during Q1. Step changes just cause problems. The big question is does she sell it or does in go into inventory. Average price for Q2 2024, when she said she would put production in inventory. i will assume just a small increase in shipments. So my guess and this time it is a guess is AUD 140M Plus or minus 5%. If you want to say i gave myself some outs that is correct. If you want to insult this. The least you should do is put up your own range. No guesses yet for Q by analysis See chart 2
Chart 1
LYC Price at posting:
$6.88 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
