Ann: Multiple TCF Prospectivity Identified - Eastern Cabora Bassa, page-212

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Frank7717

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05/09/24

00:55

Post #: 75534131
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Originally posted by huaneng: ↑

When you go to the IVZ website you find following text:

"MUKUYU GAS FIELD
In late 2023 Invictus declared dual gas discoveries from its Mukuyu-2 drilling campaign, which encountered multiple gas-bearing reservoirs with a net pay of 35m."

When you are in such a situation, what are your options?

One option is to do a well test ASAP with very small money (hundred thousands of $ not millions of $) to demonstrate a commercial gas production flow rate to surface:

For such a cheap & dirty well test you need no expensive drilling rig, nor a work over rig.

You only need a wireline truck for perforation and for swabbing.
You need a needle valve, a chiksans line, perhaps optional a very, very simple gas water separator and a flare (and a molotov cocktail when you forgot the flare gun ;-)) .

Thats it. The most expensive part of this equipment is the wireline truck with the perforation gun (whereas a perforation gun for 35 meters is not very expensive either). I am sure such a Schlumberger truck with a team can travel within weeks to Mukuyu 2, "although" it is located in Zimbabwe.

Than perforate 35 meters of casing and flow the fu$$ing gas to surface.

IF Mr. Macmillan is confident that the 35 meters of net pay can deliver a commercial production rate he could do such a well test easily IMHO. The proof of such a commercial production rate, the pictures of a big burning flare would increase the share price, would increase the value of this company and investors would be happy to offer IVZ money. If you can certify reserves with this test, even banks would be happy to offer IVZ a reserve based loan for the next projects. I would say everybody, including the suffering share holders would be very happy.

But why is Mr Macmillan shying away from such a cheap and dirty gas production test???
I guess he sees the risk that the 35 meters net pay DO NOT deliver a commercial test rate. And that would mean that IVZ will crush after a not so positve well test result for the 35 meters net pay immediately.

I guess this is the reason for delaying the well test at Mukuyu 2; to say we want to deepen Mukuyu 2 first before testing (this can increase the chance to find more gas and increase the chances of getting commercial test rates) and to drill a third well to have another chance when Muyu 2 does not deliver a commercial production test rate. I think this is the reason that the well test at Mukuyu 2 is not the number one priority of IVZ.

One more comment: Mukuyu 1 is just a very useless well (economically and of course it helped for the geological understanding). Otherwise, I would expect that IVZ would publish some plans for this Mukuyu 1. But for Mukuyu 1 we have seen no plans to perforate, no plans to stimulate, no plans to test, no plans to side track, no plans to use as future disposal well etc.....??? Yes I know that Mukuyu 1 and Mukuyu 2 were declared as dicoveries. But a sub commercial discovery has a value of zero and investors lost their money.

Expand

this has always been a concern of mine. Everyone keeps talking about the “monster field” here. Yet there is zero tangible proof of that today. Just a lot of estimates. There supposedly was money for a flow test in June, yet it didn’t happen. I’ve suspected Invictus wants to sign on a JV BEFORE a flow test, since its result is hardly a given.
So now we wait for the PPSA to get the JV to get the flow test. Whatever works, I guess. Definitely some threading of the needle required.

IVZ Price at posting: 7.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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