The fall of >90% can be repeated from any price is quite true. No argument there at all. Not being aware of this is a real trap for new players.
This is why the knowledge that these things take a few years to play out is important in terms of entry.
In respect of LTR we are only in the first few months of the fall. I won't be considering such plays for another 6 months minimum as it takes time for companies to act on their earnings disasters ( close mines, cease to exist and fall fully in price etc ) before commodity price turnarounds may occur. Given the game theory advantages of China in this space I probably won't ever play here in actual fact.
One does not just throw darts at the contenders. One needs the skill to pick the diamonds from the coal pile. My reasons for going with TTT have still not actually occurred. That being big contracts with Boeing and or Airbus. They are making progress there but not over the line yet. Their share price performance so far is all based on lots of tiny wins with other companies. This could reverse in a prolonged recession. On the other hand, if Boeing or Airbus go all in with TTT then current returns will look tiny compared to what happens then. This is why the losses I freely admit to become swamped by the returns of the winners.
I repeat if you don't have the skill to pick the winners then don't play here. You have to be psychologically comfortable with some losing 100% of your money put there.
And you need to have the work ethic to constantly reassess new information and form a fresh view after each news item. Companies do have brief revivals in price before collapsing again as
@1ronnie points out, all the time. Learn the difference between dead cat bounces and earnings based recoveries is important. Traders are going to trade and hedge funds will milk you if you let them.
When you know that an example like SGR has a big fine yet to be determined you have the discipline to hold off buying until all of the bad news is out.
All of these cheap opportunities mentioned happening before a general market crash.... How cheap will they be when this happens. Normally they get cheaper again AFTER the crash. And again, that takes months to play out.
Patience and discipline.
