You know, it's not the most likely outcome but today's announcement has increased the odds of a December election in my opinion. If I were a betting man I'd be looking at what price that is. There's a little bit of incongruity between Bill Shorten's X post and comments attributed to the Prime Minister about the announcement. It also doesn't make much sense for Shorten to continue in a high profile cabinet role only to bug out so close to a certain election and hospital pass it to the next guy (who would have to come from the reserve bench). Leaving them in the lurch is something you do so close to an election through necessity, not though a 5-month premeditated choice. Having it in December absolves them from that issue. The appointment and commencement date - determined yesterday - couldn't possibly be kept a secret at the University's end, so they've gone public about it with a fictitious end date.
That's all just happening apparently completely obliviously to the concurrent possible boomer of a timed run for the Government, with the FED meeting on Sept 18 where they are - according to market analysts - 100% likely to announce a rate cut, a 43% chance of a 0.25% rate cut and a 57% chance of a 0.5% rate cut. The RBA's next announcement is the following week on September 24. We have a new Governor who is cognisant of the caning her predecessor got for being dinosaurously slow on rate change decisions, the likelihood of a 0.5% FED rate cut fresh in the mind, a 0.2% domestic growth figure teetering us on recession, and the knowledge that with a 0.25% rate cut she will not only endear herself to the entire nation for probably the rest of her life, any possible resultant hiccups like stickier inflation won't be felt until well into the future.
Banks follow suit, the PM calls an election riding a big boost on mortgage relief, cost of living pressure and economic activity, and Bill declines to run on December 7 giving him a nice break til he kicks off the new gig in February. Like I said not a guarantee, but gotta be an increased chance surely.
