I think IO will go as low as $85US/T before it rebounds in October. Last year it went as low as $77US/T. It might still go that low.
October to March it rises then falls away around March again. Its a 6 month cycle either side.
2024 is the biggest drop in its share price ever including GFC 1 and 2 and the 2020 crash. The stock has dropped from $29.95 to $15.95 which is a $14 drop.
The 2020 crash was $20 to $8.20 This is far worse than that.
The market has not liked the fact we are wasting so many billions on green projects which have yet to make a single profit from the green projects and that is the problem.
If they had not gone down the green road then divs would have been $1.50 or more every 6 months.
I suspect why we got 89c as they know the next one might be weaker and hold cash back to do a 80c divvy next time. Then it might drop to 50c divvies if forecasts are correct where if it stays at $75US/T in 2025 then $71US/T in 2026 the our divs will shrink as will the share price.
Time will tell if these predictions are true from the WA state government.
We will know one way or the other come end of October. If its still under $100US/T that might be the new high point. FMG will be exporting more of the higher grade IO in the coming months.
FMG Price at posting:
$16.13 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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