shorters rally today?, page-10

Thanks - am I now back into the "Circle of Trust" ? as only the VWAP Monitor !

The approximate 1mth VWAP as of 1/12/10 is $0.80

x 1.40 = $1.12

The EvilShorters are to be condemned. Shorting is evil because it reveals the bones of the carcass for all to see and no one wants that shock.

The current hopefully temporary sp weakness does provide an Opportunity for the TrueBelievers to increase their holdings if they so wish

I follow BPT as well and they are still talking up their Shale Gas potential in the Nappamerri Trough where they reckon they have 200TCF GIP. They have recovered 2 of 3 Cores already. That is BPT for you - always talking their book.

The STO as a Takeover Target story is afoot again - Who would want to takeover STO the much dissed stock in this room ? What are they good at ? Where is their GLNG FID ? The year is in its last month - we want to know how they can FID T1 with more than enough gas and not need the Good Gas from our deep coal seams at ESG ?

I dont know why our ESG sp is down from its 52wk high of $1.045 to yesterday's close of $0.75 - down 28%. I know everyone gets some Glee from blaming me but I didnt do it !

ESG sp could be down because:

1. EvilShorters have been lassooed and tasked to drive down the 1mth VWAP prior to 15/1/11 so STO can mop up at $1ps - The Conspiracy. (A Ridiculous theory)
2. If STO gets taken then maybe ESG will not be gobbled in turn so a release of tension from the ESG sp. A Gladstone consolidation or rationalisation would mean plenty of available gas. (Probable - else Gladstone will be overwhelmed by all the synchronised projects)
3. STO GLNG FID T1 - will it be delayed ? If so then ESG gas is not as valuable ? (Possible - now 2/12/10 and counting)
4. LNG Plant Hyper-Inflation (aka Pluto) - STO GLNG may be very expensive especially T1 and hard for STO on Capex so they wont have any money or shares left to mop up the 80% of ESG. (Probable)
5. A Lot of Gas supply being talked up , a potential surplus - all the QLD players wanting a Gladstone deal, BPT and its Shale Gas Potential (Possible - but shale gas expensive to produce)
6. The Marubeni LNGN Feasibility study yet to be completed but due this month - is it coming ? (DC said it is )
7. ESG Reserves upgrade delay, water pumping issues, general environmental concerns, Farmers being rebellious
(Probable - normal project issues likely to be resolved)


Some or All of the above are probably wrong so anyone who can provide alternative explanations please do so !

As a long term holder (3yrs) I am in this ESG Financial House-of-Pain like everyone else here and in no way do I wish the sp to go further down.

I Wish the sp to go UP as much as anyone else

If anyone is a very long term ESG holder they can take consolation that an ESG share bought in 2001 at 20cps is now able to be sold at 75cps a CAGR (10yrs) of about 14% which is good.


Cheers