Target $18.72, page-10505

At current coal prices I think we have a negative NPAT.

While the margin of coal price to cost of production remains positive we also have $1bn of other costs to absorb each year ($250m interest on debt and other facilities, and $750m D&A annually).
The incoming sell down proceeds will likely be used to service the deferred acquisition payment (US1.1bn over 3 years), acquisition costs outstanding ($AUD350m), and sell down costs and taxes outstanding ($100m) ... plus deferred tax liabilities ($616m) and recent dividend ($104m) etc [and yes, I know that doesn't add up!]. WHC already confirmed they will retain the debt facility, and annual interest cost.

Then there's still the contingent liabilities to come (up to US$900m over 3 years).

So it's all down to coal price expectations from here. I remain a firm holder as the cost curve will eventually drive out some supply, and upside potential of a coal price bounce (even 10%) is huge. But it's going to be a rough ride for at least a few months ... perhaps years.

GLTAH