Past experience says that management is more likely to over-promise than under-promise.
So 'beating last quarter already' means 'barely beating it'. So 9500oz in 90 days last quarter means 9500-10,000oz in 70 days or so this quarter so far.
Extrapolate for the full 90 days =12,500oz this quarter, but adjust up a little because of higher weighting at the end of the quarter as we scale up, so 13,000-13,500oz. It's possible for grade to help to beat that range, if grade finally spikes - if they finally stop needing to mix in majority low grade stockpiles.
If they were literally under-promising, and feeding in 0.8gpt at 6mtpa, than we'd have 10koz for 1 month, at 120kozpa run rate already, completely ramped up in both throughput and grade. They'd have something to shout from the rooftops. It would be worth announcing, and it would risk leaking for insider trading if they didn't announce it.
90% chance, it's 'barely beating last quarter' in this 70 days vs 90 days last quarter.
KCN Price at posting:
$1.30 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
