Ann: Update on Substantial Shareholder Transaction, page-90

I reckon the US$81m figure first bandied about for Sturec is the amount the acquirer will pay in total for MTC, eventually.

Gino and mate have already locked in the 53cps as first suggested, but that's with 188m soi.

First problem for us retail holders is: Currently there is 196m soi and we have no money and a low sp, so how much dilution will be on the cards by the time the pfs is completed?

There's also a few million perf rights and options on the register which need to be added, plus any new perf rights and other perks that will be on the agm agenda, which will be before the pfs drops so Gino will know whether he gets extra perfs to include in any deal or stand down and get 53cps for the rest of his holding as a normal shareholder, therefore no hint of conflict of interest and hand complete control to the various Chinese interests that will work together to seize control of MTC.

So we are at the mercy of Gino really. Play along and let him add perfs to his holding so that we all get a reasonable payday (eg $120m/250m soi = 48cps), or he can step down and sell his shares to the Chinese for 53cps and let us fight the Chinese for a reasonable deal, which of course won't happen.

Some will say "But Minerva already have 18% and have to make an offer for the company if they reach the 20% threshhold". And they would be right, but it won't be them underwriting any issue or make a bid for MTC imo. Chifeng is still my bet to get MTC when the Chinese pull all the threads together.

The Chinese will be angling to get 50+% of MTC and are quite prepared to look after the dealmaker and mate as they know it's all about the overall cost to them, not how evenly or fairly the proceeds are distributed imo.

So the more cheap shares they soak up now either on market or via an underwritten raising, the cheaper the eventual cost to them overall.

Other Chinese entities will be working overtime to supress the sp imo, so the longer this drags on the cheaper it is for them. Gino can currently say MTC will carry on pushing Sturec to production but it's obvious to everyone that we will be long gone before then, but by closing down the sale process means on the surface there really is no other course of action for MTC but to push ahead.

Now we supposedly have possible financial and technical backing, even though it's with the entity that's eventually probably going to screw us out of our shares if they can. After all, if they wished to pay $120m for MTC they could just make a 53cps offer right now. A pfs to them is meaningless as they already have grabbed plenty of the company ahead of it, and were prepared to pay 53cps average.

Just my musings on a lazy Friday arvo. Feel free to ignore the above, consider it my mental calisthenics for the day.

Have a great weekend.