XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-17453

I agree bud, this time though I think we won't make it to mid October I think the first pullback will start early October. Note the first pullback once begun ended in a 20 percent drop that heralded the beginning of the bear market last time. You see bounces along the way followed by even bigger falls and the end result was markets dropped 50 percent+.

That is what I see happening again except more downside this time since we are at the biggest extremes seen in markets (mother of all bubbles). If they manage to hold it up any longer (election attempt?) then downside gets worse IMO. We are broken beyond any common sense measure so bigger the delay the bigger the drop? Note this will include housing.

The implosion in housing has started particularity in the US, however in Oz we can also see it starting to roll over now. The issue isn't its all fine look at the charts just hold on you will be fine. Its more a question of how can you hold on when you have no job and no dividends once companies slash them and negative equity (think 2020 was bad you not seen nothing yet).

The "covid pullback" because it was no more than that is what most associate with a crash (covid traders) but magnify the damage x 5 (being generous) and extend that over a 18 month to 2 year period and welcome to the biggest casino in the world, the stock market. Biggest shock will be when everyone realizes all the arguments used to justify...

...property prices and stock prices were used before with well no success. The other shock will come when many of the speculative stocks can no longer raise money and begin to go into administration. BTW what we call "blue chip" now in a lot of cases really isn't we have been VERY generous with both valuations and classifications, so careful:




P.S. Note I still see one final push higher that has finally begun (refer to my previous posts), and the decline I speak of that ends in a new bear market starts slowly and gathers speed over time (bear market won't happen in a day). That's why many miss it - need to let the BTD crowd keep donating their money all the way down before they bring it to a boil...

...should have mentioned the lost decade that usually follows...meh plenty of time still?...