I spent the day friday watching RMR and the trading patterns and tonight I have read most of the postings about the results and SP action from Friday and opinions on HC. I re read the results put out by the company and concluded that very few people could actually have worked out the value of the net metal return in such a short time frame to have impacted on the share price the way it did. Being a logical kinda person... thought i would look at other companies who are actually much closer to feasability and have current compliant resources. I ended up with Avalon Rare Metals and the Thor Lake project www.avalonraremetals.com
I reviewed the info and conclude the following, Avalon have an average resource density of TREO 5500 PPM, RMR is 5030, RMR has a different composition % of TREO but similar 80% recovery of concentrate with Niobium and Tantalum included Avalon are putting forward Net Metal Return of CAD$260.00 (these prices are bases from May 2010 prices, so out of date and have not been upgraded on the website)If interested you can read the info from all sites. Interestingly RMR'S % of TREO for the primary oxides and adding in Niobium and Tantalum calculated using current market spot price from www.metal-pages.com FOB ex China work out @ $505.00 NMR at todays prices FOB ex China. I could not determine a sell price for TREO concentrate only processed Oxides. Avalon has 20mt indicated and 182mt inferred. Current share price is CAD 4.03 Avalon have underataken an extensive programme drilling 45,000 mtres to date and have a average indicated resource measured in PPM 5500 only slightly higher than Rams first pass drilling of 4 Holes at 5030 PPM. And Similar Climatic Conditions faced by both Companies.
I think someone set the big offer on friday at 3 cents with the view to freak the allready jittery market and it worked. Day traders baled out and someone picked up the crumbs....
It took me a day to research this so would be surprised if anyone could have worked out the maths in 30-60 minutes with the view that the company resource was not that significant and then subsequently create a panic sell by setting the 6.6 million offer @ 3 cents. That offer was set before the market opened
Lots of opinion about this stock, however logic says hold this stock the mid term to see how things progess with next exploration phase. Bringing these other mines online and the rate of consumption in TREO in the coming years will be the telling factor over time.
RMR Price at posting:
2.2¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
