"interesting what he says about the National Bureau of Economic Research - they announce recessions, but only ever do so in past tense. Ie they never tell you when you are currently in a rcession! lol"
What makes you think that the NBER is in the business of predicting recessions?
They are in the business of measuring GDP.
If GDP contracts for 2 quarters in a row, we have a recession.
We've already had 2 preliminary estimates for Q2.
I'm sure we can all read:
We are currently in Q3.
If you want to make a prediction, lets have it.
I'll wait for this:
XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-17474
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