daytrades dec 6 pre-market, page-3

Weekly Update: This is the last weekly update for 2010. From next week I will be taking holidays until the end of January with my family so I wish all member of Hot Copper a safe and happy Christmas. I'll continue posting during the break intermittently when I am on line. Thanks to everybody here for your contributions this year. The site has again been a great resource for me during 2010. I wish everyone the best of luck for 2011.

The Scorecard from Friday
Markets
DJIA +19.7 points, Up 0.2%
NASDAQ +12.1 points, Up 0.5%
FTSE -22.2 points, Down 0.4%
DAX -9.9 points, Down 0.1%
Hangseng -128.3 points, Down 0.6%
Nikkei +9.8 points, Up 0.1%
Shanghai -1.2 points, Down 0.0%

Key Commodities
Gold +$29.60 to $1,415.00, Up 2.1%
Silver +$0.84 to $29.39, Up 2.9%
Oil USD +$2.69 to $89.44, Up 3.1%
Copper USD +$0.037/lb to $4.008/lb, Up 0.9%

Market Direction XJO: The market started out on a weak note but finished the week with a rise of 95.9 points or 2.1%. The slow stochastic rose strongly and the MACD has just crossed up through its signal line indicating that there is potential for further rises in the near term. However one concern is that last weeks rally occurred on declining volume which is not a sign that confidence in the market is gaining strength. From here the market is likely to head towards the top of the trading channel at around 4,850 or it will retrace to test the 4,600 level before deciding its next move. Given the falling volume and the fact that the slow stochastic will soon be in overbought territory, I expect the latter to occur.

Market Direction DJIA:
For the week the Dow gained 290.1 points or 2.6% following the release of a key jobs report midweek which showed that the labour market might finally be strengthening in the US. However Fridays official monthly jobs reports out of the US were less encouraging with the Non-Farm Employment Change coming in weaker than expected (39K jobs created versus an expected 143K) and the unemployment rate creeping up to 9.8 percent from 9.6 percent the prior month. The reason touted why the DOW managed a gain was that a key index for the services industry posted bigger gain than expected. Given that the labour market data released on Friday night was weaker than expected I would not expect the US market to continue strengthening from here until more conclusive data on a labour market recovery emerges. Therefore I expect the DJIA to come back to test the line in the middle of the channel at about 11,200 points this week.
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Economic Data:
Internationally, this week is quieter on the economic front, however there is some important data coming out in Australia. Firstly we have the cash rate due out on Tuesday however I would be amazed if interest rates are increased again given the relatively weak growth in GDP which was released last week. Secondly the monthly unemployment data is due out which is expected to show a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.2 percent from 5.4 percent. Internationally the most important reading coming out is the UoM Consumer Sentiment reading for the US which will be released on Saturday morning AEST.

USD Fed Chairman Speaks � Speech on Monetary Policy - Monday 11:00am
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m - Monday 11:30am
GBP Halifax HPI m/m - 6th and 7th
AUD Cash Rate - Tuesday 2:30pm
AUD RBA Statement - Tuesday 2:30pm
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m - Tuesday 8:30pm
AUD Home Loans m/m - Wednesday 11:30am
AUD Employment Change - Thursday 11:30am
AUD Unemployment Rate - Thursday 11:30am
CNY Trade Balance - Thursday (Tentative)
GBP Asset Purchase Facility - Thursday 11:00pm
GBP Official Bank Rate - Thursday 11:00pm
USD Weekly Unemployment Claims - Friday 12:30am
GBP PPI Input m/m - Friday 8:30pm
USD Trade Balance - Saturday 12:30am
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - Saturday 1:55am

Company Reporting Season:
There are no major companies reporting this week.


Stocks To Watch

Hawkley Oil and Gas Limited: HOG
Testing of the Sorochynska 201 well in Ukraine is due to get underway this week through a 9mm choke. Previous flow tests to the atmosphere through a 9mm choke resulted in a flow rate of 12.6mmcf of gas plus 392 barrels of condensate per day to the atmosphere. Flow tests to a gas plant are expected to run at about 92 percent of this level. Expected financial outcomes based on 10mmcf of gas plus 300 barrels of condensate are anticipated to be in the order of $US42m per year. When compared to the current fully diluted market capitalisation of A$69m, this shows that positive results could lead to further upside in the share price. News Due: Results from production testing of the Sorochynska well 201 through a 9mm choke are due late this week or early next.. Price Target: My price target for HOG is 36.5 cents based on potential flag pattern which exists on the chart. For this target to play out the price needs to hold above 26.5 cents. Disclosure: Holding HOG



Benitec Limited: BLT The US '099 Graham patent covering the field of DNA-directed RNA interference in humans is currently with the publications department awaiting the issue of a certificate. I expect this to occur this week based on the amount of time which has passed from when the re-examination was terminated. A counter-statement to the fresh UK challenge is due to be made by Benitec by the 14th of December, which is next Tuesday. The grounds for the move in the UK appear to be similar to those already successfully defended in the EU, the US and Australia. The reissue of the US patent is likely to have a positive effect on BLT's share price. One thing the company needs to sort out is its funding going forward because the current convertible note arrangement with La Jolla Cove is not in the best interests of all shareholders. News Due: Issue of an "Ex Parte Re-examination Certificate" will issue which is analogous to the re-issue of the '099 Graham Patent to Benitec. Price Target: The price has fallen consistently in recent weeks as a large seller (I suspect La Jolla Cove) has been taking profits. That selling appears to have eased with the price not falling below 2.5 cents, a level at which there appears to be significant demand. The slow stochastic has crossed up and the MACD is about to cross the signal line. The first target is around 3.4 cents and if that level is breached then 4 cents appears possible. Disclosure: Holding BLT


SVL/SVLO: SVL has been in a trading halt since Friday morning pending a capital raising. The company released more high grade drilling results from their Webbs Silver Project last week which should help to add to the 10.2m ounce JORC resource which currently exists. New intersections included 8m @ 358g/t Ag, 4m @ 581g/t Ag and 4m @ 342g/t Ag plus base metals credits from the holes. There was another wider intersection of 14m @ 138g/t Ag. These results highlight the potential to grow the resource at Webbs significantly. Diamond drilling is continuing into 2011 and RC drilling will commence again in early 2011 using a track mounted rig to improve accessibility. The capital raising is a positive for the company, provided the discount is not too high. It will allow SVL to increase the level of exploration and grow its resources quickly to a level which can sustain a decent sized mining operation. News Due: Further drilling results from the company's Webbs Silver Project. Details of a capital raising underway are due by tomorrow morning at the latest. Price Target: The first target is to test the previous highs of 31.5 and 32.5 cents. Beyond that the stock heads into blue sky. Disclosure: Holding SVL/SVLO



EMR/EMRO: Total depth of 8,300ft should have been reached on the company's Lake Alice Gas Unit #1 well at the NW Alice project over the weekend. The company reported on Friday that good gas shows were evident on mud logs upon entering the target Yegua sands. If successful the well is likely to produce gas plus condensate. Logging results will be known early this week, possibly as early as today, with completion operations likely to take place in January, 2011. Emerald holds a 35% interest in the well so success could have a material impact on the cash flows to the company. News Due: Logging results from the Lake Alice Gas Unit #1 well. Price Target: The first target is to break above resistance at 3.0 cents. Whilst this occurred intra-day on Friday the price fell away on substantial selling during the afternoon to close at 2.8 cents. Provided logging results are good then I expect that level to be breached today beyond which the next target I have is the 3.5 cent resistance level. Disclosure: Holding EMR



Good Luck this week.