Based on what I have just seen in the roadshow presentation, I have just re-confirmed my buy rating for both IFE and TRF.
As a numbers person, I don?t like to see the numbers jumping around but hey, if they were fixed and stable, why wouldn?t they release the DFS? Ian has said for some time now that this is constantly being reviewed and changing so they are merely providing estimates or ranges. The main thing I want to see in the DFS is a profit before tax number and based on the pre-feasibility numbers released in October, the profit should be between $35-$70 per tonne and in this roadshow it states $55 per tonne.
This all points to Year 1 profit of ~$40-$60m and Year 2 of $80-$120m which if they can even deliver 50% of this is clearly a great return on a company worth less than $50m (or ~$90m for both IFE and TRF).
The numbers are bouncing around but still within profit ranges given. There are still a few things unclear but the DFS is not out yet.
The CAPEX needed is very low. It is moving a little, but they have now provided a breakdown and includes ~10% contingency. The pre-feasibility update in October did state that total Stage one spend including working capital is $18-$28m.
Nothing is risk free but the potential reward easily outweighs the risk for me.
Regards, W.
TYX Price at posting:
84.4¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
