Ann: FY24 Results Presentation, page-266

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Rezzieman

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26/09/24

23:29

Post #: 75861837
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Originally posted by marketmaker: ↑

Interesting. Some answers for you:

First Point:
Kogan as always a real and profitable business whereas Cettire capitalises more of its cost than any of its peers (read financial statements), understates its refund liability and has a merky supply chain. Cettire is barely profitable now that the business model has stopped skimming duties from customers and potentially stopped supplying fake goods given the scrutiny. In other words, the profitability you speak of was always a mirage.

In regards to the CEO buying, did you notice he has taken out $350m worth in the last 3 years since listing. Buying $16m worth is hardly a show of support given this context. Also just for reference, did you notice the CEO bought after they got John Gidney (ex Investment Banker) on the board? He should have really bought after the trading update in June if he believed in it. It seems he has been given advice to buy now so he can jack up the share price. Also interestingly he bought through a second tier broker. Why does he sell in block trades but buy aggressively on market? Are these the actions of someone trying to purchase shares at the lowest possible price, or the actions of someone trying to increase the share price as much as possible?

Second Point:
If you look at the filings, Catrock was buying shares on 21 June (Friday) and the company has a massive downgrade on monday. They also bought more stock in July and then the company again downgraded at the end of August. This should really tell you that Catrock clearly has no idea what is going on with the company. They are simply buying more to protect their existing investment. They are simply averaging down their entry price.

Third Point:
Yes you are right. The shorts will have to eventually cover. However given the move on Tuesday, it is likely a lot of this has already happened as there was literally no new fundamental news for the stock to go up that much. Also you are assuming the shorts have to cover at today's price. If the share price continues to fall, the shorts will have to cover but at a much lower price. You could have made the similar argument when the share price was higher and the short interest was high.

Also remember, 2 big holders in the company will also need to sell. Both Regal and Catrock are stuck with such big positions. It is a matter of time and if they start selling, the share price will get destroyed. Catrock and Regal own 35% of the company and the short interest is only 10%. Remember, any big bad news may triggers big holders to sell. We shouldn't just be focussed on the shorts.

Think about the overall business model, profitability and why the business still exists? Read customer reviews and please do your work.

I am a well-wisher and I don't want normal people to lose money on company founded by a sketchy founder (read about his prior sketchy scam businesses!!). Ruslan Kogan is not the same!

Expand

Im not in it for purely fundamental but i will tell you that;

1. CEO reinvested early this month and he probably knew it was bottom.
2. Retail traditionally shines in Q2.
3. I see CTT as alternative markets for luxury goods and middle and upper middle class will keep coming back even with all the negativity.
4. I believe they can evolve the business for good from their current model.

Cheers.

CTT Price at posting: $1.92 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 31.5¢		Change 0.030(10.5%)		Mkt cap ! $117.2M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
28.0¢	31.5¢	28.0¢	$2.026M	6.697M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
10	191204	31.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
31.5¢	517374	17

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
9	185818	0.310
28	416539	0.305
16	415252	0.300
14	220386	0.295
10	128235	0.290

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.315	549832	15
0.320	249936	10
0.325	239442	7
0.330	186104	9
0.335	96695	3

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