RNU chart, page-4466

Heya guys

I've been trying to understand RNU's charts since the peaks of 22. From a fundamental perspective things have only improved but we aren't seeing the positives in the technical perspective. In our other forum I've regularly discussed my thoughts on the macro for graphite, China, FTA/IRA as it is the only explanation for the price action I'm seeing. The best I can do as an investor/trader is react to the details so I'm throwing these thoughts out there. They are only thoughts, relevant for right now and could change tomorrow if the company/product or other developments change. I am focusing on technicals with a background consideration of fundamentals to understand/make some sense of price action.




1. Early 2022 -

• positive sentiment towards battery metals
• Lithium had a year in the light
• graphite still unloved but investors are starting to wake up to the contents from a battery
• MOU POSCO
• Engineering partnership Royal IHC
• Commercial milling trials, higher returns for Siviour, increasing graphite prices
• Confirmation of RNU processes
• Conditional Aus gov loan 185m approved
• Bullish sentiment (read more here)
• Pandemic related recover
• Chinese Gov pouring money into E.V related industry and policy related supports. Dominance of industry

2. Mid 2022 -

• 65m institutional placement
• increasing shorts
• Resource and site size upgrade
• more non binding MOU POSCO
• interest rates

3. End 2022

• BAM site/project
• PEPR approval
• 70m institutional placement
• impacts of increasing interest rates

4. 2023 long downward slide

• S&P rebalance
• BAM Long lead items procurement
• Ore resource update
• Siviour land acquisition.

Where I think we're now
The world is playing catch up to China which has completely dominated the E.V related industries, materials production and price point of said. There might be a reconsidering of the amount of natural graphite required in future and perhaps a change in the usage forecast of graphite that's needed (see nuclear related and traditional industries).
Investor sentiment (this industry) is low and structural imbalance for existing producers exists. Falling costs for synthetic graphite is placing pressure on natural in battery related systems.

upside: a potential (forecast) supply deficit of natural in 2025

My thoughts T.A wise:
I am reminded of the lasonde curve and that the speculation period has ended which explains the recent price movements.
8.2 is the current support which formed Aug 2021
7.6 appears to be the next support level.
6.6 appears next support after which is looking likely ATM

Slightly fundamental side:
RNU price appears to correlate with the money in bank and assets value ~ AUD110m in bank (quarterly financial statement mid 2024). Annual spend last FY 4m meaning bank balance decreases in line and will ramp in future towards production. This could indicate (if my rudimentary maths is correct) an incoming cash raise which could be a driver for SP direction.

Thoughts/corrections anyone?






interesting reads I found while making this post:
https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/02/21/1068880/how-did-china-dominate-electric-cars-policy/
https://pepperstone.com/en/learn-to-trade/trading-guides/important-macro-trends-2023-2026/
https://investornews.com/critical-minerals-rare-earths/an-update-on-the-graphite-sector-and-what-to-expect-in-2024-and-beyond/