There should be a massive market value discount on the NPV as that does not account for capex and assumes the project is built and running as planned. Also has various assumptions that never come true but you never know which way that they will go - positive or negative. So the market will always discount the NPV due to the risk. Although we say the market is rationale it is not, as negative risks are more heavily weighted than positive ones despite have equal probabilities.
Fundamentals, page-263
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