Thank you for your well thought out post. Why apologise? This forum has been begging for such thought provoking conversations.
1. By competitors or competition, I am referring to the EPR market, which has been Alcidion's growth narrative for the past two years or so. This narrative has been used to justify the sales pipeline, revenue growth, and to establish shareholder confidence—not to mention the justification for the £60M Silverlink capital raise. Smaller contracts, like patient flow (approximately 800-900k aud per year), are relatively minor in comparison. While they add value, for me they are not the core drivers of growth that EPR is meant to be.
2. Again, my comparison is focused on EPR solutions, not just patient flow or specific modules. To make an apples-to-apples comparison, consider the likes of Meditech, Nervecentre, and Altera, who have all been winning contracts in trusts similar to those where Alcidion has deployed. Alcidion’s solution might be effective, but other vendors have also been making strides in similar environments.
For me, it’s important to weigh the contracts won by the competition and the context in which they have been deployed.
3. By standard product, I meant that most competitors in the market offer similar modules—clinical noting, medication, patient flow, interoperability, etc. From what i have seen so far, there is no groundbreaking innovation from Alcidion in terms of differentiating these modules. Many of Alcidion's competitors have published case studies as well. An organization that is on legacy systems switching to a modern digital solution will inevitably reap benefits, but the question is - what sets Alcidion apart from others doing the same?
4. I must admit i haven't done a great deal of research in the external frameworks that you have mentioned. A simple Google search reveals that Telstra Health has been publishing content on HL7 FHIR regularly, while companies like Intersystems have entire communities and resources built around it. With my investor hat on, if supporting FHIR were as critical to procurement decisions as it’s made out to be, Alcidion would indeed be “selling like hotcakes,” but that hasn’t been the case. I am curious to, how exactly would supporting FHIR push the share price back to double digits and if its all about a framework or industry standard then wouldnt the competitors be applying this too?
5. In terms of startups or small companies, look at Healthcare logic, Qventus, Enlitic, and TeleTracking, Some of them are not startup but they’re driving innovations in healthcare tech, particularly in areas like AI and operational efficiency. From an EPR perspective, as I’ve mentioned earlier, companies like System C, Nervecentre etc have secure contracts over the last year.
Again, thanks for such a sensible discussion. I don’t have all the answers, but from a 30000 foot view, Alcidion’s recent trajectory, especially in terms of sales and contracts, hasn’t been as strong as one might hope.
ALC Price at posting:
6.3¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
