Just Scatching the Surface. Have a good think!, page-68

This is a good analysis - I commend you for it.

The only thing I see very slightly differently is Russia, despite sanctions and becoming a global pariah is still selling a s load of fossil fuels to the poor and polluted. it’s budget is not too bad as a result. Putin is exploiting those people to further his megalomaniacal dreams of re-claiming the Soviet era. He forgets or doesn’t know or doesn’t care that nobody except Russia has the slightest desire to return to that ugly and awful reality.

The supplies of useable Russian Cold War hardware are still holding up for now and with some new manufacturing and parts recycling may last for another 18 months to two years. Ukraine has to hold on somehow until that happens and it remains to be seen if Russia can increase manufacturing of new gear and suck in raw materials for more than just ammunition or wether the war will end in exhaustion of both sides.