I'm bumping this thread with results up to midday on the 9th of December as I'm off on holiday from Friday and won't have access to Bloomberg. I remember posting my tips in early January and thought I would have done alright, so I thought I would run the results to see where I stood. I ended up coming not even close.
A quick word on the methodology. Where a company has paid dividends in the past 12 months I've added the dividend per share to the 9 December share price to get a better measure of total shareholder return. Also, where a poster has nominated a top 5 + others, I have only taken the top 5. Where they have nominated 6 or more in no order, I have used all their tips.
For reference, I have the All Ordinaries returning -1.29% for the year to date.
1 invest egate 298%
2 FiendishRedbeard 207%
3 hammerhead1 178%
4 gloveski 137%
5 mowibble 116%
6 sbah2 80%
7 bede 76%
8 Aksier 75%
9 Yogi-in-OZ 72%
10 haspete 68%
11 corporal 58%
12 scilliams 53%
13 ozelectro 53%
14 anferni 52%
15 leveller 45%
16 dollarfast 42%
17 fjear 42%
18 hobo-jo 39%
19 ORLANDO500 39%
20 kalmsg 38%
21 markucc 33%
22 unsinkable 33%
23 Pokerface 30%
24 brenden 30%
25 slura 30%
26 ormond 26%
27 Sagar 25%
28 longonly 25%
29 head2641 24%
30 Torpedo74 24%
31 Upmarket 20%
32 arae 17%
33 satori 17%
34 dj1 16%
35 Timjohn22 13%
36 timbosivic 13%
37 iamonaboat 8%
38 dag 8%
39 superyacht 6%
40 peter600 4%
41 midnorth 2%
42 Wanelad1 1%
43 selmax 1%
44 TheFrozenPOHM -2%
45 confucius -3%
46 CoalKing -3%
47 TDA -3%
48 ashahriar -5%
49 tkir -6%
50 GrahamMiddle -7%
51 RevelsCat -8%
52 patpat -8%
53 followme -10%
54 dazkaz -10%
55 dmagnus -14%
56 ikhutch -17%
57 towie -17%
58 Gassy -18%
59 loki01 -22%
60 Go Hard -23%
61 Durmo -26%
62 gisy -27%
63 neilmo -28%
64 sskim -30%
65 EuroTravelLover -32%
66 Winter08 -33%
67 cmk -34%
68 Nazzysmith -40%
69 factotum -49%
70 ProfessorProfit -57%
invest egate was the clear winner thanks to tipping MHM (+258%) and ADO (+886%). The top 10 tips were:
ado 886%
stb 636%
avb 434%
cap 389%
ssn 377%
pek 268%
mhm 258%
ekm 232%
rrl 218%
mmr 205%
One final thing I wanted to check was to see the average performance of the tips based on the number of people tipping them. I've always suspected that the most discussed stocks here on HC perform pretty ordinarily so I wanted to see if this came across in this thread (sorry about the formatting):
# times tipped - Average return - # of stocks
1 25% 130
2 3% 36
3 54% 12
4 31% 11
5 86% 3
6 -28% 1 (KAR)
7 -7% 1 (ORD)
8 -38% 1 (BCC)
9 n/a 0
10 -8% 1 (NKP)
The 4 most tipped stocks (NKP, BCC, ORD and KAR) each delivered negative returns over 2010 (so far - there's still time for redemption). The three stocks that were tipped by 5 posters delivered 86%, driven by MHM.
On a personal note, it's amazing how productive people can be when they're bored and winding down at work.
Bring on 2011.
