good strong open - chart anyone?, page-22

I think NS was being a bit 'modest' with that line. I don't think he wants to state something as a 'certainty' so he has to be careful with his words, hence the stuttered response.

Nevertheless, it's a fair point toph and its a good idea to look at both sides of the story.

UPSIDE

Personally I believe a 1Bt JORC when added to the current assets and cash of the company values CAP at a round $125M in market value or a share price of $1. Anything above that target adds about $5M-$10M (5c-10c per share) in market value for every 100Mt over the JORC target at this stage I believe. But given a JORC release will confirm the agreement with BMG for the cash transactions, then the share price should head up towards $1.50+ in the coming 3-4 months provided that the JORC is as estimated.

DOWNSIDE

Given the market often 'amplifies' news in both directions, then any JORC that is less than 800Mt will most likely be frowned upon by the market. Ofcourse we all know that 800Mt is still a ripe success for a company with a market cap of just $70M, but the market can often be a bit irrational. I don't really know how to predict a downwards movement in the share price (don't laugh, I'm being serious) because provided the JORC isn't something drasticly poor like 60% below estimates, then the company is still quite undervalued in my opinion. Nevertheless, a signficant fall in the share price could see it head back towards the charting support level at 56cents, or even 48cents.

If you want my opinion on this matter, I don't think we will have to worry about this downside situation. NS has an awful lot of credibility and integrity and he wouldn't have been talking up this 1Bt figure for the past year if he didn't think it was a feasible JORC target. That said, I am always happy to look at both sides of the coin.