General Discussion Topics, page-144514

A good rise, now a pause, something not right?.

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From a weekly perspective, SYA had a decent rise, from 3.1 to 3.3. But many may be disappointed, especially after reaching 3.7. Understandable.

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So what is happening? Turbulent times. Volatility has increased considerably. Greed and fear alternating. Punters confused. US Li stocks had a reasonable increase. Most stocks around 40 %above their lows, and they have kept the gain they made recently. ASX Li stocks doing the same. Chinese Li stocks were lagging previously. So they did 3 consecutive 10% increase days. Caught up to others. After that they had to hold like US Li. But they are not playing the game. Lost 10% yesterday. Another 6 to 8% today. So not a good sign. I have always said that for sustained increase, we need all Li stocks to go in tandem. As I have been writing, we cannot have a party, without Chinese Li stocks. They can lag for short periods, but then have to catch up. But they are playing truant again. Not completely given up the gain, but looking very vulnerable. So now we have a question mark on the rally. Next few days may provide more than direction, but a caution sign has been given.

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SYA too is playing the macro. And playing like most ASX Li stocks. Reached high of 3.7, and then came down. Needs to hold 3.2 on any weakness, if it doesn't I may have a think about my play.

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Personally I did not like the Chinese play. I play trading pattern, number, etc, and something didn't look right to me. In the last couple of days I have let go a lot of Li shares, just to manage risk. I have played differently with SYA. I have kept my holding as of last week, though traded a few. This is one of my very few Li stocks where my holding is not reduced from last week. My average last week was 2.8, currently 2.7, sold and bought a few.

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So what may happen next week? A lot depends on tonight. Till now, from bottom, the play has been that US Li stocks have taken the lead, went ahead, and kept the gain. Chinese Li stocks have then caught up. Last week, ALB was pushed down whole week, but it held 94. And then bang on Friday, it moved to 102. Same play this week. Whole week has been pushed down, but has held 102, even when Chinese stocks dropped 10% yesterday. We need another bang, maybe tonight, and straight to 110+, more importantly, above my number 106. Chinese stocks can catch up next week. Will that happen? Let's hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best