my expectations

Hi everyone

My expectations regarding the next communication from the company will be a divvie for the first half, plus a profit upgrade for the full year.

In the first half they made $3.4m

FY guidance was for $5.9-6.6m - so at the upper end lets call it $3.2m

The 2nd half is always stronger than the first

CPL prices have risen at least 10% the 2nd half of this year. The annual report sensitivity analysis said that for every 5% increase in will increase profit by $4.6m all else equal

The yuan has strengthened over the 2nd half which is a negative (the half yearly used 6.08RMB to the AUD for the first half - which I assume involves the forecast). The average for the 2nd half up until today is 6.32. So lets call it a 5% strengthening. According to the annual report sensitivity analysis this strengthening of the RMB will reduce profit by under $1m all else equal.

So all in all I believe they will do $7m+ for the full year, and potentially closer to $8m depending on how they have handled the increase in CPL prices.

Bullish forecast of course, but if this takes place this will be the start of a significant re-rating IMO.