perspective

Hi all,
Ok I have had some time to think through the DFS and capital raising and I think it is important to keep some perspective here.

Pro?s
The game play is now a lot more certain and shareholders know where they stand.
The ultimate number (profit) is still as expected and ~$50 per tonne
Some insto?s are now on the books
Current shareholders get to benefit in cheap rights issue with a buy of share or sell the right

Con?s
Still some logistics to be finalised
Dates a couple of months behind expectations
No debt in capex funding (although I assume debt will be used for the working capital of $6-$8m)
Costs look to be fixed, revenue or iron price could drop

Overall,
From a EPS point of view or NVP, the numbers align fairly closely with Intersuisse (including the dilution) and their valuation was a conservative $2.14.

Dilution isn?t great but their was going to be some dilution, they needed to raise money so some dilution was expected (and they at least will have ~$26m in the bank).

I think the timetable is conservative and the majority of the time is government approval ? however, I take that as the maximum time needed and that approvals may be quicker.

As for the risk in the Iron Ore price, for me, if I thought the Iron Ore price was likely to drop soon then I wouldn?t consider IFE/TRF at all and a few extra months delay would change me from a strong buy to a sell. However, if people want to invest in Iron over the next 5-10 yrs then IFE/TRF provides a cheap entry. This DSO is really only a quick win for shareholders as it will fund the bigger project which reduces the need for massive spend later on ? if IFE want to produce 100m+ tonne of Iron.

I am happy to hold and take up the rights issue.

Regards,
W