I still sweat every weekend thinking an AFR piece might drop saying we're undertaking a CR. But the fact it hasn't happened yet (and if they have nothing else lined up then it bloody should have happened before the SP was at 20c), and also because of the falling shorts, to go along with all the things they've said about deals; I think they probably have irons in the fire now. If a CR drops now, i'll be flipping tables.
If we go just by what they've said, there's at least one mid-tier US Pharma company who has dataroom access, and - again going by what they've said - this means they've submitted a non-binding offer, and been deemed by the PAR board as being capable of fulfilling the role, and terms have been discussed and included in that offer which are acceptable to PAR. Admittedly, PR sounded as if he thinks we can do better than this suitor, but that was almost a year ago and depending on how things have gone, we may not be so choosy. That was November 2023, and whilst there's no guarantee that this suitor (who chased PAR regularly for updates, so seemed pretty keen) is still an option, on the positive side, PAR may have stepped up the proactivity of their search in the US since then and may have more interest than before...
- PR, Nov '23"
So, we do have commercial interest and I have to say, as a result of the conferences we've attended this year, we have commercial interest in South America which has been ongoing for some time but those investors also want to know that we've got clearance through the US FDA, same in China, same in the United States."
- PR, July '24Both Paul Rennie and Beverly Huttman mentioned interest from China, South America, and Beverly mentioned interest from the Middle East too.
"
After a company has expressed initial interest and signed a confidentiality agreement, we share a document which contains sufficient detailed information for them to conduct a thorough assessment of the product, in order for them to prepare a business case and propose non-binding terms. This is the most resource-intensive part of the process. There may be rounds of questions, further exchange of information, and discussions of draft terms between the two parties. We currently have multiple companies at this stage in China, the Middle-East, and Latin America creating competitive tension which may help us to secure the best terms possible."
- BH, Nov '23These companies interested in regional territories outside the US/EU will have at least signed CDA's and accessed more confidential info, but we can't know that they have submitted non-binding offers and accessed dataroom info yet. It'd be great to understand what the difference is between the confidential information accessed after CDA's are signed, and what's in the dataroom. It'd also be interesting to know which of these sets of confidential information is home to the exclusive supply agreement contract between PAR and Bene, if any.
Regardless, if this process is to believed, and if what Paul and Beverly have said is to be believed, then we have at least on (mid-tier US) non-binding offer on the table, and potentially others for other regions, and that was almost 12-months ago. More or moreso, if Paul is to be believed, after conferences attended in 2024.
Clearly at Nov '23 the open strategy was to close a regional deal first, and hold off on a US deal for as long as possible. That strategy may have had to change of course (since beggars can't be choosers) if the landscape hasn't been as promising as PAR envisaged a year ago. However, assuming we haven't quite become beggars yet, you would think that this strategy remains the same. A regional deal would be preferred. It makes sense. We're weak now simply due to lack of funds, but if that issue is neutralised by funds from regional deals, we become strong - all of a sudden very strong - before having to negotiate on the company's true Koh-i-Noor, the exclusive sales and distribution rights to sell Zilosul in the USA.
I'd love to see any sign right now, that the company can monetise any part of their asset. However, I think that if a first deal is signed, and it is a US deal, it'll be a bittersweet moment. It'll show that they couldn't get a regional deal done first, and that they've had to settle for shifting what could be a world-class asset for a song, simply because they need the money after poor budgeting. As I say, i'd love to see any kind of deal to start things off this year - but it's something regional, like China, South America first, that'll be a real punch-the-air, "it's happening", moment.
(20min delay)