I don't post here very much. But I am a very large share holder of PCL. I also bought 1% of Sintana when it was a sub $40mn stock -- so I also get the opportunity to speak to speak directly to the management of the other partners of PCL in PEL 87.
Regarding the seismic approval -- I think it will be fair to assume that if the license has not been approved thus far, it likely wont come through now until December at least.
Namibia general elections are to take place on 27th November. Usually any major or tricky approvals process is paused / or put on moratorium several weeks before an election is due. This is very common everywhere globally, especially true for third world or emerging market countries.
If anyone wishes to trade around this, its best to assume the stock has a higher probability of going lower next few weeks in absence of news. As for me, I am not looking at the stock on a daily basis, because I know the approvals wont come through until December now.
And I also think, with 4 rigs going to be operational within the area soon -- 1 with Galp, 1 with Total, 1 with Chevron and 1 with Rhino/BP/ENI -- the perspectivity of the micro region within the region is very high. It will be absolutely foolish of WDS to walk away from 87 without even drilling one well (what $70-80mn?).
The approvals will come, the well will be drilled on 87. Whether there is any reservoir underneath or not -- that's a separate discussion
PCL Price at posting:
1.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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